The crushing defeat in the Delhi assembly elections at the hands of the Bhartiya Janata Party has raised questions over the political survival of the Aam Aadmi Party. Although Delhi was AAP’s fort for over a decade the party also capitalised on the prevailing disdain for mainstream political parties in Punjab and won the state elections in 2022. While Aam Aadmi Party’s national convenor Arvind Kejriwal once said “Hum rajneeti badalne aaye hain” [we have come to change politics], his conduct and that of his party leaders showed that they are nothing but old wine in a new bottle.
For long, the opposition parties including AAP have been asserting that somehow BJP is a one-man show where the showman is Narendra Modi, suggesting that there is a lack of democracy within the party. However, the way the Aam Aadmi Party functions, it appears like unlike the BJP which has a robust intra-party democracy, Arvind Kejriwal is the “Sarve sarva” of AAP.
After the Aam Aadmi Party’s drubbing in the recent Delhi elections, Arvind Kejriwal summoned AAP-ruled Punjab’s Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann and all the 92 AAP MLAs to Delhi. Although AAP maintained that it was an “organisational meeting” and even Bhagwant Mann denied the claims by Congress that there is a rift within the Aam Aadmi Party, speculations are rife that after Delhi, AAP’s future in Punjab is also bleak.
After the Delhi debacle, all is not well for AAP in Punjab too
Recently, Punjab Congress leader and LoP Partap Singh Bajwa said that the Aam Aadmi Party might face a potential split. He said that around 30 AAP MLAs have maintained good relations with the Punjab Congress and have been in touch with the party for the past year. He also indicated that these MLAs are ready to switch sides. Besides, Bajwa also asserted that AAP Delhi and AAP Punjab are at loggerheads for seizing control of party leadership.
“Now, the AAP Delhi leadership will tighten its control on Punjab, and CM Mann will not tolerate it. A leadership battle will ensue in the AAP over controlling the government in Punjab, and this will lead to a split. AP MLAs have been in touch with me for a long time as after the Delhi debacle they know they are not coming back. The Punjab leadership is already at odds with Delhi, which is running the show in Punjab. A vertical split is on the cards,” Bajwa said and advised Bhagwant Mann to go the Eknath Shinde-way who parted ways from Uddhav Thackeray in Maharashtra citing ideological differences.
While Congress has claimed that there is a rift within AAP, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) has claimed that Kejriwal is planning to sideline Bhagwant Mann and become the Chief Minister of Punjab. “It is being said that Kejriwal will declare Bhagwant Mann inefficient by highlighting that he has not fulfilled promises like Rs 1,000 each for women and controlling drug abuse. Then he will take charge himself…He is making AAP Punjab MLAs say that Kejriwal is a ‘good man’ and should be made Chief Minister instead,” BJP MLA Manjinder Singh Sirsa said.
After losing the Delhi elections, Arvind Kejriwal has called a meeting of Punjab MLAs in Delhi. Reports suggest that he is trying to remove @BhagwantMann Ji from the CM post by branding him as incompetent.
— Manjinder Singh Sirsa (@mssirsa) February 10, 2025
He failed to fulfill his promise of giving ₹1000 to women, was… pic.twitter.com/PJ5k3ttZ4E
Amidst the speculations and questions, Bhagwant Mann addressed the media on 11th February after meeting Kejriwal and gave standard answers to the questions regarding the alleged rift within the party, and ended up heaping praises on his government. “Arvind Kejriwal thanked the MLAs for their work in the Delhi elections… The Punjab government is working for the welfare of the people… Even today, the people of Delhi say that they have not seen such View ~ work in the last 75 years as the AAP has done in the last 10 years… We will use Delhi’s experience in Punjab… We will work together. Our party is known for its work… In today’s meeting, it was decided that in the coming two years, we will make Punjab a model that the whole nation will look up to… Punjab has always been forefront in all the fights…” CM Mann said even though just recently, the people of Delhi outrightly rejected the ‘Delhi model’.
#WATCH | Delhi: After meeting AAP National Convenor Arvind Kejriwal, Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann says, "… Arvind Kejriwal thanked the MLAs for their work in the Delhi elections… Punjab government is working for the welfare of the people… Even today, the people of Delhi say that… pic.twitter.com/TFcUlBeYgE
— ANI (@ANI) February 11, 2025
It is very audacious of CM Mann to say that AAP will make Punjab a model that India would look up to, it’s been three years in power already and the AAP government has done nothing but worsen the economic crisis in Punjab. Amusingly, CM Mann said that he would replicate AAP’s ‘Delhi model’ in Punjab. Probably, he would want to look into whether there is a scope for replicating a Delhi-like liquor scam in Punjab. Interestingly, AAP Punjab has already replicated AAP Delhi’s “work-less-advertise-more” model. Besides, much like Kejriwal, for the Bhagwant Mann government as well self-care takes precedence over public welfare. It was reported last month that the AAP government in Punjab bought luxury cars for its ministers and security using taxpayers’ money that too at a time when the state’s coffers are almost dried up.
Notably, Punjab has been facing financial crises in the recent past. The RBI data indicated that Punjab’s debt-GSDP ratio and per capita debt are the highest in the country compared to other states. Punjab’s debt-to-GDP (%) in FY 2024-25 (budget estimate) has been reported to be 44.1% while the fiscal deficit 3.8%. While the state’s financial condition is worsening, the AAP government has been prioritising “image management” more than economy management. In March 2024, it was reported that the AAP government spent Rs 7 crore in the Ludhiana district alone on promotions.
While the state’s outstanding debt stands at Rs 3,43,626 crores, as of November 2024, and is likely to increase by Rs 4,50,000 crore by the end of the AAP government’s term in 2026-27, the Bhagwant Mann government has been squandering taxpayers’ money on advertisement polishing its own image and distributing freebies at the cost of drying up state exchequer.
In addition to the economic crisis, Punjab also grapples with deteriorating law and order, drug menace, corruption and misgovernance, among others.
Much like in Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab also attracted voters through freebies and populist schemes without considering what its obvious impact would be on the state exchequer. On one hand, free electricity and other such schemes and dried up Punjab’s exchequer, on the other, the AAP government has failed to fulfil many of its poll promises including the one of giving Rs 1000 to women above the age of 18 per month. The situation is such that the Punjab and Haryana High Court recently slammed the Punjab government over the lack of basic facilities in Forensic Labs and its excuse of lack of funds while it spends huge amounts on advertisements and buying luxury cars.
While the AAP government’s pandering to Khalistani elements and allowing Khalistani separatists like Amritpal Singh among others to gain ground in Punjab under their watch might win them support from the secessionists, the people of Punjab might give a shocker to AAP in the coming assembly elections. If this happens, AAP’s ambitions to expand its tentacles across the nation would be reduced to a pipe dream and might also end Kejriwal’s political career. Probably, this fear has prompted Arvind Kejriwal who lost his New Delhi assembly seat, to assert his control over the party leadership.
Contrary to the expectations that AAP Punjab would ditch the usual poll plank of replicating the Delhi model in Punjab given the fact that in Delhi, AAP turned out to be everything it claimed to fight and in Punjab, the replication of the same model has made the people of Punjab understand that AAP is no different from traditional political outfits, Bhagwant Mann continues to boast Delhi model as some sort of success despite it being a monumental failure.
With a prevailing public resentment for the ruling Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab and the people punishing AAP in Delhi, there is scope for the BJP and Congress to regain the lost public support and trust. The last Lok Sabha election results wherein AAP won only 3 out of 13 seats indicate the mood of the people of Punjab which evidently is not in favour of AAP.
Who is ruling Punjab? Bhagwant Mann or Arvind Kejriwal?
There have been various occasions when Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann and his MLAs have rushed to Delhi on one summon by Arvind Kejriwal for what the party often described as ‘organisational meetings’. The question arises as to who is calling the shots, or rather making the calls in Punjab, the elected CM or the puppeteer from Delhi. It seems like Kejriwal has more influence over Punjab’s governance than Bhagwant Mann does. In fact, there have been allegations that the Bhagwant Mann-led government in Punjab is like a remote-controlled car. For Kejriwal, Punjab seems more to be an extension of his political playground than a state with its own issues. Not to forget, in 2023, Kejriwal used Punjab’s state aircraft for his election campaigns, the cost of which was borne by the Punjab government.
Back in 2022, BJP’s Manjinder Singh Sirsa, former Punjab CM Captain Amarinder Singh and others, accused Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal of holding a meeting with Punjab bureaucrats in CM Bhagwant Mann’s absence on Monday. Ex-CM Singh called CM Mann a ‘rubber stamp’ and said the worst that was feared had happened. Questions were raised about in what capacity the then Delhi CM held meetings with Punjab bureaucrats by bypassing the Punjab CM. Congress, BJP and other opposition parties had back then called Kejriwal’s conduct a breach of federalism and a violation of constitution.
In 2022, the AAP governments in Punjab and Delhi signed a ‘Knowledge-sharing agreement’ empowering them to send and receive ministers, officials and other personnel to exchange knowledge. While Kejriwal called this an ‘experiment’, it apparently was an agreement to shift power from Punjab to New Delhi, to Kejriwal’s Sheeshmahal to be specific. It was criticised by the opposition as an “ undemocratic institutionalised interference”.
Alongside asserting his direct control over the AAP government in Punjab, Kejriwal has also installed his loyalists like Bibhav Kumar in the Mann administration, apparently to facilitate his functioning as Punjab’s “super CM”. Bibhav Kumar, a close aide of Kejriwal who also faces allegations of violence against MP Swati Maliwal was appointed as CM Mann’s Chief Advisor last year. He was granted Z+ security recently to sparked sharp criticism.
In October 2024, Kejriwal summoned Punjab cabinet ministers to Delhi to ‘review’ their performance. The same day, two CMO officials, directors of communication Baltej Singh Pannu and Manpreet Kaur were removed and some fresh appointments were also made. While a party leadership ensuring that its leaders in constitutional positions are doing their job efficiently is not wrong, however, Punjab government officials being removed and appointed alongside the cabinet reshuffle at the whims of the top leader of the ruling party in Delhi indicates that Punjab’s autonomy is more a decorative concept than a reality.
Other than meetings dubbed as ‘organisational’, Bhagwant Mann has also visited Kejriwal to discuss the implementation of policies in Punjab. Apparently, Kejriwal has been functioning as the de facto Chief Minister of Punjab so far and with power slipping out of his hands in Delhi, the AAP leader might consider contesting the vacant Ludhiana seat and formally entering the Punjab government. Given the fact that Kejriwal is the only AAP leader with a mass appeal, and Atishi may have won her seat and been a “temporary CM” as Kejriwal himself called her once, lacks mass appeal. In such a situation, Bhagwant Mann might emerge as the face of AAP, which may or may not be good for the party but will definitely be detrimental to Kejriwal’s political career.
Perhaps, the meeting of AAP Punjab leaders with the party leadership in Delhi was Kejriwal’s way of subtle messaging that Delhi may have routed him, but he still is the undisputed supreme leader within the party and that Bhagwant Mann is only a branch manager, not the CEO.
