On the 1st of June 2025, Ukraine executed a massive attack on several airbases of Russia destroying around 40 fighter jets. This attack using FPV drones not only destroyed Russian military assets but also inflicted a deep wound on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s pride. While a strong response from Russia to the Ukrainian offensive is almost certain, what is even more certain is the end of hopes of any ceasefire between Russian and a NATO-backed Ukraine in the near future.
Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb and how it will keep Russia-Ukraine entangled in a prolonged war
Under the operation code-named Pavutyna or Spiderweb, Ukraine used First-person view (FPV) drones, where an operator can view what’s in front of the drone using its cameras. When aircraft were spotted, they were targeted from weapons carried on the drones, ensuring very close-range precise strikes. The drones were smuggled into Russia much earlier, and were hidden inside mobile wooden cabins loaded onto trucks. The drones were hidden on the roof of the cabins, with a lid on the roof that could be opened remotely. When all the trucks were placed at the desired locations near the airbases in Belaya, Diaghilevo, Olenya and Ivanovo, the operation began.
The Ukrainian officials said that they have been planning this operation for 1.5 years. Reports say that around 40 to 41 Russian aircrafts, including nuclear capable TU-95 and Tu-22 strategic bombers were damaged in the attack. Ukraine also attacked a military unit in the village of Sridni, the first such attack in Siberia.
In a video message, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy lauded Operation Spiderweb and sheer brilliance with which it was executed, stunning Russia. Zelenskyy said that around 117 drones were used and about 34 per cent of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers stationed at targeted airbases were hit.
“Today, a brilliant operation was carried out. The preparation took over a year and a half. What’s most interesting, is that the “office” of our operation on Russian territory was located directly next to FSB headquarters in one of their regions. In total, 117 drones were used in the operation with a corresponding number of drone operators involved. 34% of the strategic cruise missile carriers stationed at air bases were hit. We will continue this work,” the Ukrainian President said.
Today, a brilliant operation was carried out. The preparation took over a year and a half. What’s most interesting, is that the “office” of our operation on Russian territory was located directly next to FSB headquarters in one of their regions.
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 1, 2025
In total, 117 drones were used in… pic.twitter.com/tU0SMN9jdB
In a subsequent thread posted on X, President Zelenskyy claimed that Russia has been intensifying its drone and missile attacks against Ukraine. He further asserted that Ukraine never wanted this war and even offered a ceasefire, however, it was “the Russians who chose to continue the war – even under conditions where the entire world is calling for an end to the killing.”
Not for a single second did we want this war. We offered the Russians a ceasefire. Since March 11, the U.S. proposal for a full and unconditional ceasefire has been on the table. It was the Russians who chose to continue the war – even under conditions where the entire world is…
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 1, 2025
Described as the biggest drone strike attack on Russia since the war erupted, Ukraine’s offensive comes across as a bold but reckless move. While executing such an attack deep inside Russia shows Ukraine’s military capabilities and willingness to take risks, however, the timing of the attack raises concerns. The timing of the Ukrainian drone attacks right ahead of the scheduled peace talks in Istanbul raises questions if it was Ukraine’s deliberate attempt to sabotage negotiations or a profound strategic error. This question becomes even more significant when the Ukrainian President says “we will continue to do so”.
While the first round of peace talks between Moscow and Kiev may have not been successful in securing a ceasefire commitment, the talks concluded with both agreeing to exchange around a thousand prisoners of war. Last month, both the warring nations implemented this agreement and PoWs were exchanged, hinting that, although gradually, things may take positive turn in this prolonged war. However, Russia’s missile and drone strikes and now Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb has essentially crushed the hopes for even a short term ceasefire, let alone lasting peace.
Even as the Russian aircrafts destroyed by Ukrainian drones burn and Russian leadership fumes, the leaders of Russia and Ukraine will meet each other in Istanbul on 2nd June, for peace talks, ironically.
While the planned peace talks are not expected to yield any significantly positive outcomes, Russia would not sit silent after the Ukrainian attack or continue with the usual tactics, rather, sone fear that Russian forces might even start considering the Nuclear option against Ukraine.
For President Putin, the Ukrainian attack is both, a setback and an opportunity. The Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia have not only inflicted damages to fighter jets, but Putin’s image of an untouchable strongman. Russian nationalists, who form Putin’s large support base, expect a robust response. Agreeing to ceasefire immediately after such an attack, would come across as a sign of weakness and Ukraine and its European allies would project this as Russia’s defeat. Besides, President Putin’s reputation as a defender of Russian sovereignty would also be undermined.
Putin has continuously said that Russia’s war against Ukraine is its defence against what Moscow calls Western encroachment and a fight against the root causes of the conflict. These include Ukraine’s desire to join NATO which would translate into bringing NATO forces to the doorstep of Russia, Kiev’s refusal to cede territories occupied by Russia, alongside Western sanctions. Since the Ukrainian attack came just ahead of peace talks, Kiev has essentially handed an opportunity to Moscow to go berserk in response to Ukraine’s “act of terror”.
So far, Ukraine’s Western backers have been accusing Russia of deliberately prolonging the conflict. Hoever, after Operation Spiderweb, Moscow will allege that it is Ukraine and its Western allies who are escalating the war, making it untenable for Putin to accept ceasefire without desired concessions.
Notably, Ukraine has submitted its draft memorandum outlining a peaceful resolution and President Putin’s advisor Vladimir Medinsky, who would lead the Russian delegation at peace talks has confirmed receiving the document. Russia, however, has not submitted its memorandum to Ukraine, Turkey or the US, so far. Moscow is anticipated to reveal its stance during the meeting in Istanbul.
It is, however, expected that Russia would demand Ukraine to recognise Russian control over annexed Ukrainian territories, relinquish NATO dream, and demilitarise. The Ukrainian attack has allowed Moscow to stiffen its demands, and the Russian delegation might argue that Ukraine’s attack proved the need for stricter conditions to ensure Russia’s security and integrity.
Speculations are rife that Putin might opt for immediate escalation by using advanced weaponry including Orshenik missiles, Kalibr, and other warheads. However, Moscow might also pick a gradual, more methodical approach and continue to grind Ukraine’s defences while avoiding the adverse economic impacts a dramatic escalation would trigger including fresh wave of sanctions.
Reports say that the Russian forces are advancing in eastern Ukraine, with intent of creating buffer zones along the border, and have almost expelled Ukrainian forces from Russia’s Kursk region. These developments suggest that although time taking, Putin’s strategy of outlasting Ukraine and its Western allies has worked arguably well. Prolonging the conflict would help Russia erode Ukraine’s manpower and EU’s resolve.
In either case, the war will persist and yield devastating consequences for both the warring nations. The continued attacks and counterattacks by Russia and a NATO-backed Ukraine ensures the creation of a cycle of destruction and devastation where peace is the ultimate casualty.
Donald Trump’s dream of playing ‘peacemaker’ now lies in tatters
Ukraine and Russia have been accusing each other of delaying negotiations and having no intentions to end the war. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump, who promised to bring an end to this war, is left clueless and frustrated as things fall apart despite his tall promises of peace.
The 1st June attack has shattered Donald Trump’s ambitions of being hailed as a messiah by brokering peace between Russia and Ukraine. During his election campaign last year, Donald Trump had famously claimed that if voted to power, he would end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours, however, it’s been nearly five months already and Trump’s efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war embarrassingly faltered.
Earlier, Trump’s decision not to impose fresh sanctions against Moscow had rattled Kiev as he was seen inching closer to Putin. However, Trump’s more recent remarks directly accusing President Putin of taking measures counterproductive to peace efforts as well as calling Putin “absolutely crazy” indicate that evolving situation has left Trump clueless.
Last month, Ukraine and the United States signed the minerals deal under which the US will gain access to the war-torn nation’s rare earth deposits, including oil and gas. It must be noted that Trump has significantly reduced aid to Ukraine, thus compelling the war-torn country to ink a deal to secure long-term US investment. Trump has also been willing to make Ukraine give up its NATO aspirations, held telephonic conversations with Putin, however, none of his efforts have yielded results that could make Kiev and Moscow to agree to a ceasefire, forget lasting peace.
President Trump has tried all this conventional US tactics of talks, trade and threats, however, neither Russia nor Ukraine have stopped fighting. Neither President Putin will easily commit to a ceasefire, especially after the June 1 attack, nor President Zelenskyy would relent on his NATO dream, particularly without ironclad security guarantees, which the US is not in a position anymore to ensure. With both the warring nations prioritising military posturing over diplomacy and mediation efforts going futile, neither a ceasefire nor lasting peace are on the horizon. For Trump, after India’s outright denial of Trump’s trade-backed mediation stopping India-Pakistan clashes, the escalation of Russia-Ukraine war suggests that Trump’s peacemaker dream was just a naïve dream never meant to translate into reality.
