The world might witness a war in the Middle East as Israel prepares to launch an operation into Iran in coming days. As per reports, Israel informed the US officials about its plan to attack Iran following which the US State Department has advised US citizens and officials on Wednesday (11th June) to leave Iraq amid rising regional tensions. The US is anticipating that Iran could retaliate to Israel’s action by targeting the American sites in Iraq.
According to reports, the US planning to pull its non-essential staff from its embassies and bases lying within the strike range of Iran in the Middle Eastern region. The military bases of the US in the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait have reportedly been put on red alert. The US government has also authorised the military family members in the region to voluntarily leave. Speaking at the Kennedy Centre on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump informed the media that the US citizens have been advised to leave the Middle East “because it could be a dangerous pleace, and we’ll se what happens”. Trump added that the US did not want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, on Wednesday, clearly expressed the possibility of Iranian attack on the US bases in the region saying that if a “conflict is imposed on us,” the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps “will target all U.S. bases in the host countries.”
The US-Iran nuclear deal
The US envoy in Middle East, Steve Witkoff is reportedly planning to meet with Iranian officials in the next few days for a sixth round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program. The two countries have held five rounds of discussion since April 2024 in order to reach an agreement that could replace the 2015 Iran nuclear accord which was junked by Trump during his first term in 2018. The Iran nuclear accord or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was an agreement signed by Iran with the five permanent members of the US Security Council (United States, United Kingdom, France, China, Russia, and Germany) and the European Union, which put restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions.
President Trump has low hopes regarding the discussions between the US and Iran. He expressed the lack of possibility of a nuclear deal being made between the two countries. “I don’t know. I did think so, and I’m getting more and more — less confident about it. They seem to be delaying, and I think that’s a shame, but I’m less confident now than I would have been a couple of months ago. Something happened to them, but I am much less confident of a deal being made,”Trump said. The US-Iran talks apparently hitting a dead-end coupled with Iran’s rejection of the US proposal for a nuclear deal and a demand for the recognition of its right to enrich uranium, have led to the current spike in tensions between Israel and Iran.
Why the US and Israel are opposed to Iran’s nuclear program
Both the US and Israel have been opposing Iran’s nuclear program considering its possible geopolitical repercussions and a potential threat for the Jewish state. Even though Iran was the second Muslim country, after Turkey, to recognise Israel as a sovereign state, but the country’s support for proxy forces in the region and its military and financial assistance to terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah have led to Israel viewing it as a threat to its existence.
Developing a nuclear weapon would enhance Iran’s military capabilities as well as its influence in the Middle East, which is something that Israel is vehemently trying to prevent. Even though, Iran has been denying developing any nuclear weapon, Israel has been accusing the country of secretly attempting to develop a nuclear weapon.
With no current possibility of a nuclear deal between the US and Iran, Israel might now plan be planning to target Iran’s nuclear establisments in order to eliminate the chances of progress of its nuclear programme. However, since Iran’s nuclear facilities are underground, Israel would need the assistance of the US for locating and targeting them.
History of Iran-Israel conflict
In the light of the current situation between Iran and Israel, it is hard to believe that the two countries once used to be close allies. Israel-Iran relations took a downward turn following the 1979 revolution in Iran, which resulted in a regime change in the country. The revolution replaced Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, who had a pro-West inclination, with theocratic Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who declared Iran as an Islamic republic. The Khomeini regime has been openly opposed to Israel and the US. It does not recognise Israel’s existence and seeks its eradication. Iran’s second Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, described Israel a “cancerous tumour” that “will undoubtedly be uprooted and destroyed”.
As part of its broader strategy to challenge the influence of Israel and the US in the region, Iran has been supporting Palestinian terrorist groups under the banner of “axis of resistance”. In a 2009 sermon, Khomeini reportedly said that his regime woulf support any country or group that fights Israel.
Iran has been indulging in asymmetic warfare in the Middle East by supporting terrorist groups to target Israel. By hiding behind terrorist groups and not launching a direct military action against Israel, Iran is able to avoid accountability and discreettly push its agenda in the region.
The Israel-Iran conflict hightened after Israel launched an aggressive military action against the operatives and leaders of Palestinian terrorist groups including Hamas and Hezbollah in the aftermath of the brutal terrorist attack in Israel in October 2023. In the terrorist attack, around 1200 people, inlcuding foreign nationals were killed and around 200 people were taken hotage by the terrorists in Gaza. Israel launched major military operations in Gaza targeting terrorist bases. It also targeted the Iranian proxies in the region, which attracted retaliation by Iran. In April last year, Iran launched a barrage of 300 ballistica missiles on Israel. This was followed by another strike in October in the same year, when Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles on Israel.
