A highly competitive 1st phase of the West Bengal state assembly elections has instilled the BJP, yearning for its maiden victory in the TMC-dominated state. The highest-ever voter turnout, 92.9%, during the polling of 152 seats has indicated that the Bengali voters are in a mood to bring a historic change, apparently in favour of TMC’s arch-nemesis, BJP. However, this ‘historic change’ is contingent on the BJP managing to win big in the final phase on 29th April, as many seats in this phase are in CM Mamata Banerjee’s bastion.
142 seats, Mamata Banerjee’s stronghold, the BJP’s past below-par performance and the renewed hopes of conquering the TMC heartland
The second and final phase of the 2026 West Bengal elections is a make-or-break phase for the BJP. This phase covers the large pasts of South Bengal, including 11 seats in Kolkata, North 24 Parganas has 33, South 24 Parganas has 31, Howrah has 16, Hooghly has 18, Nadia has 17, and East Burdwan has 16. These seats have been the Trinamool Congress’s core bastion.
In the controversial 2021 assembly elections, the TMC swept 124 out of 142 seats, registering an around 86% strike rate. The BJP, on the contrary, could secure only 18 seats. Similar equations emerged in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as well, although considering the TMC’s dominance both through politics and street veto, the BJP securing overall 77 seats and becoming the principal opposition party, was also no less than moving mountains.
While a supposed upper hand in the first phase definitely improves the BJP’s prospects, to become the giant slayer, the party needs to crack TMC’s loyal voter base in the latter’s stronghold.
To form a government, competing parties need to achieve the magical figure of 148 out of 294. Even if the BJP fares well in the 1st phase, it is unlikely that the party would manage to hit the majority mark. Securing substantial gains in phase 2, say 45 to 60 seats at least, would make it numerically possible to reach or exceed 148.
TMC’s organisational depth and syndicate raj grip have allowed it a near-invincible dominance in the phase 2 seats, which had delivered the party sweeping a third term. BJP has historically struggled to gain ground here; however, this time there is a possibility of the BJP pulling off a historic show, as it did in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections at the national level.
BJP’s aggressive campaign, focus on real issues people of Bengal are facing, be it unemployment, lack of industries, as well as its messaging of preventing demographic change, has resonated well with the people. In fact, the TMC is rattled at the prospect of losing the 2026 Vidhan Sabha election, and even unleashed its hooligans to create chaos and conflict during the 1st phase of the polling.
Phase 2 will witness the biggest fight of the 2026 Lok Sabha elections in Bhabanipur, where Chief Minister and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee will defend her home turf against BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari, who has inflicted an embarrassing defeat on Banerjee on the Nandigram seat in 2021.
Besides Mamata, many TMC heavyweights, including Kolkata Mayor and notorious Islamist Firhad Hakim in Kolkata Port, Minister of State for Finance Chandrima Bhattacharya in Dum Dum Uttar, Minister of Commerce and Industries Shashi Panja in Shyampukur, Power Minister Aroop Biswas in Tollyganj, Education Minister Bratya Basu in Dum Dum, and Minister of State for Fire and Emergency Services Sujit Basu in Bidhannagar, will have their electoral fate decided on 29th April.
BJP’s Kalyan Chakraborty has been aggressively holding roadshows and public events in Khardaha to breach this TMC-leaning suburban seat. Recently, BJP national president Nitin Nabin has held a roadshow here to seek votes for Chakraborty.
Another key BJP candidate is Rekha Patra, who gained national attention when the Sandeshkhali women’s harassment case involving TMC strongmen was exposed in 2024. Patra is contesting from the Hingalganj seat. Her victory here would not only contribute to the BJP’s chances to power but also hand the TMC an unescapable embarrassment since not only were TMC strongmen like Sheikh Shahjahan the main accused perpetrators of sexual crimes against women in Sandeshkhali, but CM Mamata Banerjee had even downplayed these crimes as ‘minor incident’.
From Panihati, the BJP has fielded Ratna Debnath, the mother of the doctor who was raped and killed at the RG Kar Hospital in Kolkata in 2024. The Mamata Banerjee government’s mishandling and insensitivity in this case had sparked protests and national outrage against her. Recently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned for Ratna Debnath, called TMC an “anti-woman” party, and promised a fresh probe in the RG Kar rape case.
From Rekha Patra to Ratna Debnath, the BJP carefully picked its candidate. Fielding victims of the TMC regime’s misrule in elections, sending out the message that the BJP is not just raising their issues but also actively working towards empowering them.
From Krishnanagar North, the BJP has fielded Tarak Chatterjee. This seat is a major border-region test for the party since it has been a vocal critic of the illegal influx of Bangladeshi Muslims and has accused the TMC of allowing not only Krishnagar North but the entire Nadia district to be a hub of Bangladeshi infiltrators.
This seat’s significance can be understood from the fact that PM Modi held a major rally here and raised the issue of CAA and infiltration.
Another important seat is Bidhannagar constituency, wherein TMC’s Sujit Bose is competing against BJP’s Dr Sharadwat Mukhopadhyay.
In Barrackpore & Howrah seats, the BJP is targeting jute-mill and working-class voters, while Mamata Banerjee addressed rallies in the student politics hub, Jadavpur.
While the TMC portrays high voter turnout in phase 1 to mounting public anger against the SIR exercise concluded recently, the BJP and electoral pundits attribute it to a collective public mood to bring a change is Bengal’s politics.
BJP’s top leadership, from PM Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma, to UP CM Yogi Adityanath, has aggressively campaigned and seemingly managed to turn the winds in the party’s favour.
Thank you Dum Dum.
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) April 24, 2026
TMC is losing.
BJP is winning! pic.twitter.com/BUFIrga3A1
From Mathurapur/Kakdwip in South 24 Parganas, Krishnanagar in Nadia, Panihati, Jadavpur, Baruipur, Howrah to Dum Dum, Prime Minister Modi’s intense campaigning so far, and the scheduled final day roadshows in Bongaon, Hooghly’s Arambagh, and roadshow between Bhabanipur and other South Kolkata seats, shows that the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to register a historic victory.
