With COVID-19 evolving into a persistent and increasingly known health challenge, global healthcare experts are now preparing for a possible emergence of “Disease X.” They warn that this novel virus could potentially yield an impact that can be twice that of the catastrophic pandemic Spanish Flu of 1918-1920.
As per a British health specialist, Disease X has the potential to trigger a deadlier pandemic than COVID-19, possibly resulting in a death toll of at least 50 million. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has defined Disease X as an outbreak that might be caused by a pathogen not yet identified as a human disease agent.
Kate Bingham, who chaired the UK’s Vaccine Taskforce from May to December 2020, indicated that the potential impact of the new virus could resemble that of the Spanish Flu pandemic from 1919 to 1920. Kate Bingham said, “Let me put it this way: the 1918–19 flu pandemic killed at least 50 million people worldwide, twice as many as were killed in the First World War. Today, we could expect a similar death toll from one of the many viruses that already exist.”
She emphasised the need for global readiness in organising extensive vaccination campaigns and swiftly administering doses to counter the looming threat posed by Disease X. Bingham also elaborated that numerous viruses are undergoing replication and mutation at a pace surpassing that of all other life forms on Earth combined.
This emerging potential pandemic has the potential to cause 20 times more fatalities than the coronavirus. The COVID-19 pandemic, which commenced in 2020, has sadly led to the loss of at least over 2.5 million lives globally.
Kate Bingham revealed that although scientists have identified 25 virus families containing thousands of individual viruses, she believes there are millions of undiscovered viruses with the potential to evolve into pandemics.
She said, “In a sense, we got lucky with COVID-19, despite the fact that it caused 20 million or more deaths across the world. The point is that the vast majority of people infected with the virus managed to recover. Imagine Disease X is as infectious as measles with the fatality rate of Ebola (67%). Somewhere in the world, it’s replicating, and sooner or later, somebody will start feeling sick.”
Chinese virologist Shi Zhengli is also among the scientists warning about the possible new pandemic. Shi Zhengli said, “If a coronavirus caused diseases to emerge before, there is a high chance it will cause future outbreaks.”
In July 2023, a report published in the English-language journal Emerging Microbes and Infections identified 20 coronavirus species classified as ‘highly risky.’ Among these viruses, six are already documented to have caused diseases in humans, and there is supporting evidence that an additional three have either caused diseases or infected other animal species. The report said, “It is almost certain that there will be future disease emergence and it is highly likely a (coronavirus) disease again.”
The study relied on an examination of viral characteristics, encompassing factors such as population size, genetic diversity, host range, and any prior instances of zoonotic transmission, where diseases leap from animals to humans. Shi Zhengli and her research team also pinpointed key hosts of the pathogen, which include natural hosts like bats and rodents, as well as potential intermediary hosts, including camels, civets, pigs, or pangolins.
As global healthcare experts brace themselves for the potential emergence of “Disease X,” the spectre of a virus with a reach and impact reminiscent of the devastating Spanish Flu looms large. The warnings echo the urgency of our times, reminding us of the fragility of our global health landscape. With Disease X on the horizon, potentially more lethal and far-reaching than COVID-19, vigilance and preparedness are paramount. Kate Bingham’s stark comparison to the 1918-1920 flu pandemic underscores the stakes involved. The need for robust vaccination campaigns and rapid responses becomes ever more critical in the face of this looming threat. As we confront this uncertain future, it is a stark reminder of the perpetual battle against infectious diseases that humanity must wage.
