Days after journalist and ex-Amnesty India head Aakar Patel gave a call to violence on Twitter, his account is withheld by the social networking giant.
Aakar Patel account withheld
“Aakar Patel’s account has been withheld in India in response to a legal demand” the landing page of his profile said. Earlier this week, an FIR was filed against him for saying that Muslims and Dalits should do protests like the ongoing protests in the USA againat George Floyd killing.
On 31stย May, while quoting a tweet by Colorado Times Recorder featuring a video of thousands of people protesting in Capitol in Colorado, Aakar Patel hadย tweetedย that India Muslims, Dalits, Adivasis, women and poor also need to do protests like these. โWe need protests like these. From Dalits and Muslims and Adivasis. And the poor. And women. World will notice. Protest is a craft,โ he had tweeted.
Aakar Patel’s tweet
The complaint filed by Nagaraja said that Patel called on minorities, backward, poor and women to stage protests like the one seen in the video. He said that several people had objected to Patelโs tweet.
Aakar Patel has been booked under IPC sections 505(1)(b) (with intent to cause, or which is likely to cause, fear or alarm to the public, or to any section of the public whereby any person may be induced to commit an offence against the State or against the public tranquility), 153 (Wantonly giving provocation with intent to cause riot) and 117 (Abetting commission of offence by the public or by more than ten persons).
Although the video posted by Aakar Patel showed a peaceful protest, the ongoing protests in the United States have been marked by widescaleย violence, rioting, arson and looting. The killing of African American George Floyd by a white police officer in Minneapolisย had led to nationwide protests, which soon descended into violence and riots. Protesters have attacked police teams and burnt police vehicles,ย lootedย retails stores, and burnt downย housesย and public places, including historic places. Several left-liberals have been calling for similar violent protests by Muslims in India. As a result, security agencies have become vigilant about such posts promoting violence in India in the line of violence in US.
Amnesty India
Amnesty India, an organisation Patel headed till some months back, defended the violent mobs and rioters of anti-CAA protests and even started a petition claiming India is curbing โfreedom of expressionโ. Similarly, one Karthik Navayan, a human rights activist who was associated with Amnesty International India as per his Twitter bio back in 2018, had advocated violence against Brahmins in a tweet.
Amnesty India is currently under scanner for violation of Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) laws.
Samajwadi Party leader Javed Siddiqui and 34 others have been arrested over setting ablaze the houses of Dalits in the Dalit Basti of a village in Jaunpur. UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has ordered the authorities to invoke the stringent National Security Act against the perpetrators.
As per reports On June 9, a minor argument among the children turned into a deadly communal clash in a village of Jaunpur, that led the destruction of more than a dozen houses that were owned by Dalits after they were was set blazed. Massive damage was caused to the scheduled caste community. Even the domesticated animals were not spared. Reportedly, three goats and one buffalo were burned alive.
In UP’s Jaunpur, several houses of Dalits were torched by a mob following a minor dispute on June 9. As of now, 35 people have been arrested. CM Yogi has ordered invoking stringent NSA against Noor Alam and Javed Siddiqui, the two main accused. pic.twitter.com/vypw6dGUQu
As per reports, children from the scheduled caste community in the Bhadethi village took their buffalo to graze in a field near a pond where the children from the Muslim community were also grazing their goats. Reportedly, while grazing the buffalo hit the goat that led to a minor quarrel among the group of children.
The children get back to their homes and narrated the story to their parents. As a result, the people from the Muslim community went to the Dalit locality armed with sticks and rods. After the exchange of words, three men Nabib, Lareb and Habib got injured. At the same time, Aftab aka Hitler, who is also the husband of the Village head, came to resolve the argument.
Around 8 pm, some 100 people from the other village raided the Dalit locality again and attacked the locals in which three Dalit men- Ravi, Atul, and Pawan were injured. The assailants started burning the houses. Many people including Nandlal, Nebulal, Rajaram, Jitendra, Sewlal lost their belongings along with their shelters.
On being informed, the Sarai Khwaja police station house officer reached the spot along with his personnel. The SHO called more cops later sensing that the trouble is big.
Jaunpur DM DK Singh and SP Ashok Kumar reached the spot and later other senior officials including Varanasi Divisional Commissioner Deepak Agarwal and IG range VS Meena came to review the situation.
The police force surrounded the Dalit Basti and admitted the injured people to the district hospital. A 16-year old boy was rushed to the Varanasi hospital after being reported as a critical case.
CM Yogi took cognizance
UP CM Yogi Adityanath took cognizance of the incident and ordered the police officials to invoke the Gangster Act and slam NSA on the culprits- Noor Alam and Javed Siddiqui. The CM also called for strict action against the SHO of the local police station as he failed to control the situation.
According to Varanasi IG VS Meena, 35 people were arrested in connection with the clashes including Samajwadi Party leader Javed Siddiqui. A heavy police force is deployed in Dalit Basti while a team of police has camped inside the village to assess the amount of loss.
The local police registered FIR against 58 people of the Muslim community under the sections of the Indian Penal Code and SC/ST atrocities act. A case is also lodged against 100 unidentified people in connection with the arson.
Adityanath directed the concerned authorities to compensate the victim with the financial assistance of 1 lakh each to those whose houses and belongings were burnt. They are also ordered to allot accommodation to them under the CM housing scheme to the victim.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has clarified that the government had denied visas to controversial US Congressional body – USCIRF teams that had sought to visit India in connection with issues related to religious freedom.
In a letter on June 1, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar replied to BJP MP Nishikant Dubey stating, “We have denied a visa to USCIRF teams that have sought to visit India in connection with issues related to religious freedom, as we do not see the locus standi of a foreign entity like USCIRF to pronounce on the state of Indian citizensโ constitutionally protected rights.”
Earlier, BJP MP Nishikant Dubey had raised the observations against United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) in Parliament in December 2019 after the body affiliated to US Congress had recommended to the US administration that India be designated a “country of particular concern”.
The minister added that the USCIRF has been known to make prejudiced, inaccurate and misleading observations regarding the state of religious freedom in India. We do not take cognisance of these pronouncements and have repudiated such attempts to misrepresent information related to India, the Minister added.
Minister Jaishankar also noted that the MEA had earlier rejected the USCIRF’s statements as “inaccurate and unwarranted”. The Minister added that India “will not accept any external interference or pronouncement on matters related to our sovereignty and the fundamental rights of our citizens that are guaranteed by the Constitution”.
USCIRF Annual Report on religious freedom
The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), an advisory body to the US Congress, in April had released its 2020 annual report, where it had recommended that the Trump administration classify India as a “country of particular concern”, along with other countries like Pakistan, North Korea, China and Saudi Arabia.
The USCIRF claimed that India was โengaging in and tolerating systematic, ongoing and egregious religious freedom violationsโ. The report also stated that the national government allowed violence against minorities and also engaged in and tolerated hate speech and incitement to violence.
The report recommended that the Trump administration should impose targeted sanctions on Indian government allegedly responsible for severe violations of religious freedom by freezing those individualsโ assets and barring their entry into the United States under human rights-related financial and visa authorities, citing specific religious freedom violations.
Interestingly, three out of nine commissioners at the USCIRF have dissented against the commissionโs claim against India and have made separate qualifying notes to the report on India.
Responding to the tirade of USCIRF, the MEA had rejected claims made by them on religious freedom in the country and had referred it to as”biased and tendentious”.
USCIRFโs prejudice against India
The controversial US body has always been at the forefront of the misinformation campaign against the country. Ever since Narendra Modi returned back to power in 2019, the USCIRF has been meddling into Indiaโs internal affairs by indulging in one-sided motivated propaganda against the Modi government.
The US congressional body emerged into the scene following the abrogation of Article 370 in the country with its misleading statements and continued to do so even during the implementation of historic Citizenship Amendment Act. It is notable here that the USCIRF has a history of fanning baseless rumours and leftist propaganda against India. They had also ranted against Indiaโs Citizenship Amendment Act, calling it a โdangerous turn in the wrong directionโ.
Ironically, the USCIRF, which claims to be standing for religious freedom and rights, resorted to peddling false propaganda against Indian government on CAA, a law which was implemented to guarantee rights in the country by granting Indian citizenship.
The Indian government has time-and-again rejected the one-sided prejudiced observations made by the US body. India had earlier said the American body on international religious freedom has chosen to be guided only by its biases on a matter on which it has no locus standi.
The USCIRF is the commission that had recommended the denial of US visa to PM Modi when he was the CM of Gujarat. It had also threatened ‘sanctions’ against Home Minister Amit Shah ‘if the CAB was passed’.
Just weeks back, the self-proclaimed religious freedom body USCIRF, had indulged in a misinformation campaign by falsely claiming that coronavirus patients were being segregated on the basis of religious identity in an Ahmedabad hospital.
A Muslim ‘godman’ named Aslam who claimed of curing coronavirus patients by kissing their hands had died of COVID-19 in Madhya Pradesh’s Nayapura district in Ratlam on June 4.
As soon as the news of his death spread, the authorities in Ratlam sprung to action. The district authorities started scrambling to identify the people who had visited Aslam for treatment.
After identifying and sending their samples for testing, the authorities have found at least 19 of his patients to have tested positive for the pathogen. Seeing the number of coronavirus infected people rising steadily in the district, the authorities traced at least 29 other ‘healers’ who had claimed magic treatments for coronavirus and placed them in a government quarantine facility. Only after their tests are conducted would they be allowed to leave the facility, confirmed the authorities.
Aslam had infected 19 others before himself dying of coronavirus
With the rising number of coronavirus positive cases linked to this ‘healer’ Aslam Nayapura district in Ratlam has now emerged as a coronavirus hotspot. Shockingly, Aslam guaranteed to cure coronavirus by kissing the hands of the affected patients. And by doing so, he actually spread the disease to as many as 19 in the district. It is being said that out of the 24 coronavirus positives found in Ratlam on June 9, 2020 (Tuesday), 13 were those who had come in contact with Aslam. Similarly, on June 7 (Sunday), 6 people from Nayapura district who were tested coronavirus positive were all in contact with this healer. Basically, out of the 85 coronavirus positive cases in the district, 19 were those who had come in contact with Aslam.
Nodal officer Dr Pramod Prajapati said that the method these healers use is particularly dangerous as it is a potent virus carrier. These black magic healers generally blow into the water they make their patients drink. This particularly increases the chance of infection as COVID-19 virus is primarily transmitted from person to person through small droplets from the nose or mouth.
Media outlets calls the Muslim healer a “baba”
While the accused was a Muslim, several media organisations, including Nayi Duniya, Navbharat Times, have tried to give the entire incident a Hindu spin by describing the Muslim healer as ‘baba’. The term baba is generally used for a Hindu priest.
Aaj Tak has even used the illustration of a Hindu Sadhu in their report about Aslam.
However, this is not the first time any media outlet has tried to cover-up the Muslim perpetrators by giving it a Hindu spin to depict that the crime was committed by Hindus.
Media keeps depicting criminal magic healers as saffron-clad ‘Tantriks’
Recently, the Internet was awash with a picture of a report from 2019, where a media organisation unscrupulously endeavoured to cover up the crimes committed by a man belonging to the minority community. The case pertained to a distraught woman in Bilaspur suffering from the agony of an estranged husband and family problems. To overcome her agony, she reached out to a Muslim scholar named Aslam Faizi and sought his help. Aslam first forced her to have a sexual relationship with him and later assured her that all her problems will be solved now.
While the accused here was also a Muslim, several media organisations, including Nayi Duniya, gave the entire incident a Hindu spin by describing the alleged rapist as โTantrikโโ a practitioner of the โtantra vidyaโ, who is mainly associated with Hinduism, leading to a perception that the crime was committed by a Hindu individual. Moreover, an image of a Hindu priest was used to characterise the Muslim fraudster who had allegedly committed rape by coercing the victim.
Other instances of mediaโs treachery to give crimes committed by Muslims a Hindu spin
Last year, several media organisations attributed the death of a 10-year-old boy because of the rituals performed by a Muslim healer to a โTantrikโ. While the death of the child occurred due to a Muslim healer, PTI report gives an obvious Hindu slant to the headline and calls the Muslim healer a โTantrikโ. This headline was then carried by many media houses such as NDTV, India Today, The Tribune verbatim without changes.
There are several times in the past that the media has resorted to such chicanery. As per a Hindureport, a woman had accused a โTantrikโ of raping her in Ajmer, after taking her their on the โpretext of offering prayers at a Dargahโ. In the same month, Times of India had carried an article titled, โTantrik gets 10 years in jail for rape and extortionโ. Like the reports mentioned above, the name of the accused was โWarsiโ.
Even vernacular media has been caught using the same tricks. Dainik Jagran for some reason decided to call an accused in a harassment case as โTantrik Sufi babaโ in the headline. He, in the content, was later identified as Aftab. Hindi News18 in its article carried the headline, โTantrik arrested for committing misdemeanour with a minor, under the pretext of chasing away ghostsโ. The Tantrik was later identified as Hafiz Sajid.
The Jammu and Kashmir police have busted a huge narco-terror module evidently sponsored by Pakistan in Kupwara. Reportedly, three terrorists of Lashkar-e-Taiba have been arrested along with the drugs and loads of cash in Handwara division.
Handwara Police (J&K) today busted a huge Pakistan sponsored narco-terror module. 3 Lashkar-e-Taiba terror associates were arrested, they were in touch with Pak handlers. 21 kg heroin, Indian currency with the value of Rs 1.34 Crores seized: SP Handwara Dr GV Sundeep Chakravarthy pic.twitter.com/4iMSdOCbTG
SP of Handwara Dr. GV Sundeep Chakravarthy said the module was under operation to establish Lashkar-e-Taiba’s terror activity in the Jammu and Kashmir. The police are describing it as one of the massive exposures.
While speaking to media, Handwara SP said, “The three, who were arrested, were peddling drugs to financially help the Lashkar-e-Toiba terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir. It’s a very big hawala racket where the money is transferred without money movement and financed for terrorist activities.”
Reportedly, all the operatives nabbed have been identified. The prime accused is identified as Iftikhar Indrabi. He is a notorious drug smuggler in the valley and is already slammed with several FIRs.
The SP informed, “The second man is his son-in-law Momin Peer and the third is Iqbal-ul-Islam. More arrests are going to take place in this module.”
COVID-19 has completely changed the way we think, relate and behave around people. Amid the ongoing pandemic, internet giant Google has come up with a new update in the Maps app that will provide real-time data related to the coronavirus pandemic. A few months ago, entering a crowded metro, local train, or a bus was not a big deal for most people. Though some people are not bothered by the spread of the virus, many want to practice social distancing and other precautions to be safe. Those who have medical issues such as hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, cancer, etc. need to be more cautious.
Whatโs new with Google Maps?
Google has introduced several features in the latest update that will help in relieving some stress. The latest version of Google Maps on both Android and iOS will help the users to stay informed about possible direct or indirect effects of COVID-19 during your trip. The new updates will be available in many countries, including India, Argentina, Belgium, US, United Kingdom, Australia, Colombia, France, Brazil, Netherlands, Spain, Thailand and Mexico.
In a blog post, Google announced the changes in an elaborate manner. Google has partnered with the local authorities and updated the features while staying on the right side of the laws. Here is a list of all the features that you can use in Google maps while commuting.
Maps will inform you about the checkpoints on your route. It will also notify you about the restrictions you have to follow while staying there. Google will add more locations and information in the coming weeks that will help you plan a safer trip. For example, when you are crossing the borders of Canada/US/ Mexico, the Maps will inform you about the restrictions you have to face, especially if you are from a hot zone or are entering one.
If you try to find medical centers or labs that are providing services related to COVID-19, Maps will alert you to check the facility’s guidelines and verify eligibility. However, these alerts are not available in all locations. Users from Indonesia, Israel, South Korea, the Philippines and the US will get information and restrictions or regulations about the medical facilities. The alerts for testing centers will be available for users in the US.
A blend of crowdedness predictions with new features
Last year Google introduced a feature that tells about the possible crowd in a public transit, aka crowdedness predictions. Google predicts the crowd based on the information users shared in Maps. Google uses non-anonymous data to provide virtually correct information about the crowd. Now users will be able to use this data to decide if they want to go to a crowded place or not.
Back in February, Google Maps introduced new insights like security onboard, accessibility and temperature. They also added a women-centric section in February and now they have rolled these featured for all the users. The experience of the former riders will help users to take a wise decision to save themselves from infection. You can also submit your feedback about the crowd etc. while checking your travel history or during the transit in Maps.
Google has a section for users who use wheelchairs as well. Visiting public places is never an easy task for such users. With new improved features, users who use wheelchairs can see if a particular place is wheelchair friendly or not and it will include information about seating, accessible doors and more.
Using the historical data of other users, you can ensure proper distancing. If the crowd is above average, it will be better not to plan a visit at such a location. One prime example for such a crowd can be Mumbai metros. The users will be able to see if the transit station is crowded in real time. For the next few weeks, Google is planning to strengthen the capabilities of the new features with the help of aggregated and anonymous data.
Privacy concerns
Those who have opted out from Google Maps do not want Google to store their information in any way. However, under these features, Google will aggregate the data marking it as from anonymous source. In the past, Google has been called out for using personal data of the users to show relevant ads based on personal choices. There will be some concerns among users about how Google is going to use this data.
While pronouncing judgment in several cases on OBC quota in medical colleges of Tamil Nadu, the Supreme Court has said that the right to reservation is not a fundamental right. The three-judge Bench of Justices L Nageswara Rao, Krishna Murari and Ravindra Bhat objected to the petitions filed under Article 32 of the Constitution of India by political parties DMK, AIADMK and others.
Lack of quota benefits is not a violation of constitutional rights
Justice Rao categorically stated that no one has the right to claim reservation as a fundamental right. Thus, if the state does not provide quota benefits, it is not a violation of any constitutional right. He added that as per the current law right to reservation is not a fundamental right. The bench was hearing petitions against the Tamil Nadu government for not keeping reserved seats for OBC students in the medical colleges.
Petitioners asked for 50% OBC reservation in medical and dental courses
CPI, DMK, AIADMK and others had filed several petitions and asked for 50% OBC reservation in colleges for undergraduate, postgraduate medical and dental courses in 2020-21. The petitioners said that Tamil Nadu provides 69% reservation for SC, ST and OBCs out of which 50% seats are reserved for OBCs. They asked the court to ensure that 50% of OBC candidates get admission in medical colleges out of the seats that Tamil Nadu surrendered under All India Quota.
The petitioners said in their pleas that if OBC candidate is denied admission, it is a violation of his or her fundamental right. They mentioned in their petitions that the OBCs did not get appropriate representation in the past academic years. The petitioners requested the court to stay the counseling under NEET till the court decides on the reservation.
SC objected to petitions filed under Article 32
The Supreme Court was not impressed with the submissions made by the petitioners. The bench questioned the petitioners under which law they filed a petition under Article 32 as the right to have reservation benefits is not a fundamental right. The court further asked the petitioners to explain whose fundamental rights are being violated by denying reservation.
The court added that they appreciated the efforts political parties in Tamil Nadu putting in for the cause, but they refused to entertain the plea. The court further asked them to file the petition in Madras High Court. The petitioners asked for permission to withdraw the petitions to which Supreme Court obliged.
In February 2020, the Supreme Court had passed a verdict in which they said that no one could claim reservation in public jobs stating it as a fundamental right. The judgment also noted that no court has the right to order a state government to provide reservation to SC/STs.
After using Coronavirus outbreak to whine about the economic crisis back home, urging the international community to consider for a debt waiver for poor and vulnerable countries like his, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan has now audaciously offered help to India. Taking to Twitter, Imran Khan said “I am ready to offer help & share our successful cash transfer prog, lauded internationally for its reach & transparency, with India.”
Prime Miniater Imran Khan offers financial help to India
Sharing a report by a Pakistani news daily The Express Tribune titled: “84% Indian households suffered a decrease in monthly income since lockdown”, Imran Khan’s heart went out for the “34% of households across India”, who according to him would “not be able to survive for more than a week without additional assistance”. The Pakistani PM offered to help Indians by means of its “successful cash transfer program” through which his government has supposedly “successfully transferred Rs 120 billion in 9 weeks to over 10 million families in a transparent manner to deal with the COVID19 fallout on the poor”.
Acc to this report, 34% of households across India will not be able to survive for more than a week without add assistance. I am ready to offer help & share our successful cash transfer prog, lauded internationally for its reach & transparency, with India.https://t.co/CcvUf6wERM
The outlandish proposal by Prime Minister Imran Khan leaves Twitterati in splits
This outlandish proposal by the Prime Minister of a cash-strapped nation left Indian Tweeterati in splits. Rebuffing the proposal, netizens were quick to remind Imran Khan of how he and his country are more in need of help.
Pointing out how his government did not have money to clear his offices’ electricity dues, a Twitter user asked him to first use the fund to clear his electricity bill.
bas itni hi bheekh mili international community se? anyway, apne office ka electricity bill time se bhar diya kar.. pic.twitter.com/hhM3hCeFSV
โ kaushal kumar choudhary (@Kaushal65300084) June 11, 2020
But what was most humourous was that even Pakistani’s didn’t let go of this opportunity and asked Imran Khan to first focus on his own country. “The whole health system is in tatters and you have to behave like a fake global leader. There are people literally dying on the streets right now in Pakistan. No hospital beds are available. But no, let’s mediate in affairs of others”, wrote a Pakistani Twitter user.
Can you first focus on your own country? The whole health system is in tatters and you have to behave like a fake global leader. There are people literally dying on the streets right now in Pakistan. No hospital beds are available. But no, let’s mediate in affairs of others. https://t.co/cHnUzTHBJd
Indian Government launched mega cash transfer to fight Covid
Perhaps it important for Imran Khan to realise, that when his government was busy begging richer economies to write off the debts of the worldโs poorer countries which includes Pakistan, the Indian government had launched one of the largest ever cash transfer schemes, which included the deposit of over Rs 30,000 crore into the account of woman Jan Dhan account holders. Moreover, Rs 5,000 crore was deposited into the linked accounts of eight crore poor households with LPG connections provided under โUjjwalaโ.
FM Nirmala Sitharaman had announced direct cash transfers to help poor during the covid crisis.
Direct Benefit Transfer Scheme: Poor widows poor pensioners and poor disabled will be given ex-gratia an additional amount of Rs 1000 over the next three months
Old age, Divyang, pensioners: 3 crore people covered, one-time amount of additional Rs 1000 in two instalments through DBT (hence no middlemen) over 3 months to be given
Increase in MNREGA wage to Rs 202 a day from Rs 182 to benefit 5 crore families.
20 crore women Jan Dhan Yojana account holders will get Rs 500 per month for the next three months.
Cash transfer based on DBT: Farmers who get Rs 6,000 annually under PM-Kisan got the first instalment of Rs 2,000 in addition which was given immediately in the first week of April.
On Day 1 of the PM Jan Dhan transfer scheme, Rs 500 was deposited into the accounts of 4 crore women, with the government ordering banks to ensure that the dormant accounts were reactivated to ensure that no beneficiary was left out.
According to reports, during the lockdown period, the India Post has achieved a new milestone in the history of Indian banking as postmen across the country have delivered Rs 1,000 crore in cash to various account holders of different banks at their doorstep across the country. In addition to this, the transactions of the post office savings bank amount to another Rs 66,000 crore in nearly four crore transactions during the lockdown period.
According to the reports, nearly Rs 1,051 crore have been delivered in as many as 59 lakh transactions during the lockdown between March 23 and May 11.
The Lonar crater Lake in Maharashtra has suddenly changed its colour as it turned pink from its earlier greenish hue.
Since the past four days or so, #Maharashtra's world-famous #LonarLake – the world's third biggest formed by a meteorite hit – has mysteriously changed colour from its normal bluish-green to a baby-pink shade.
It is believed that the lake was formed after a meteorite struck on that place some 50,000 years ago, during the Pleistocene epoch. The Lonar Lake in Buldhana, Maharashtra is a popular tourist destination and the chemical changes in the lake often attract scientists from across the globe.
Salinity and algae
The crater lake, spread on 113-hectares is also known as the Lonar crater. It has saline water with pH 10.5. A member of the Lonar lake conservation and development committee, Gajanan Kharat was quoted by the PTI saying, “There are algae in the water body. The salinity and the algae can be responsible for this colour change.” He clarified, “There is no oxygenย below one meter of the lake’s water surface. There is an example of a lake in Iran, where water becomes reddish due to an increase in salinity.”
Kharat further said, “The low level of water may lead to increased salinity and change in the behaviour of algae because of atmospheric changes. This may be the reason for the colour change. This is not the first time that the colour of water has changed.”
The forest department has been ordered to collect samples of the water and find out the reason behind this change.
Lack of pollutants cited as a possible reason
As per a report in the Zee News, the Head of Geography department of Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar Marathawada University, Dr Madan Suryavanshi said that due to lockdown the lake did not witness any kind of disturbance or pollutant which led to this change.
As per reports, in 2006, the water of the Lonar lake had suddenly evaporated. The villagers around witnessed some shining crystals of salt and other minerals in the dried-up lake. Some research scientists working on the lake have stated that due to changes in the chemical and physical environment, the growth in numbers of certain fungal species may have contributed to the increase in carotenoid levels in the lake water.
The Lonar lake comes under the 383-hectare Lonar Wildlife Sanctuary that was established in 2000. The area was also declared National Geo-heritage Monument in 1979.
Worldwide, economies are expected to get a hammer blow from the effect of Covid-19. In India also a contraction in the economy is inevitable. It is very challenging to estimate the level, given the uncertainty of how long the pandemic persists. Reliable data is hard to come by and the challenge is magnified in these unprecedented times due to the effects of the lockdown. Even where data is available, its application in computing Gross Value Added GDP using simulation models may be rendered statistically irrelevant because of the staggering range of the variation.
While one hopes that the government has the resources to compute the numbers in a dynamic context, there has not been any substantive press releases with such details. Most of the reporting has thus been reliant on reports by investment banks with the inherent strengths and weaknesses of the simulation models the have use for sectoral GDP calculation. As these are mostly proprietary, they are not available for public scrutiny and without their analysis one can hardly comment on the accuracy of such forecasts. However, conclusions, when published, are used in Indiaโs noisy and highly polarized politics to further political positions. They are reported in mainstream television media with headline-grabbing bombast accompanied by selective usage of footage from real-life stories that can be found to buttress as many points as there are humans.
All this justifiably causes a great deal the angst amongst the populace. During such times of crisis, the data-driven analysis should be the only way to assess the extent of the disaster as it is unfolding. It is precisely because of these reasons that the authors have adopted a simplistic methodology to work out estimates of what might happen in each constituent sector of the economy. The emphasis is to ensure that the assumptions are clearly stated and documented so that subsequent revisions can be effected, once more data is available.
The Lockdown in the Indian Economy was declared on March 25, 2020, when the financial year 2019-2020 was nearly over. As the Financial Year (FY) for the Indian Economy starts from April 1, its impact is mainly going to affect the FY 2020-2021. Most of the 2nd quarter of Calendar Year (CY) 2020 (or 1Q of FY 2020-2021) is going to be lost with a cliff-edge drop impact on the GDP. For purposes of simplicity, the authors have considered zero revenue for impacted sectors. Thereafter while several sectors will take many quarters to recover others should be able to pick up the threads unless the pandemic runs amuck causing disastrous levels of death. Given in the following is a construct of the Gross Value Added (GVA) measure of the Indian Economy by considering a sectoral drop percentage in various constituent sectors.
For the Trade, Repair, Hotels, Tourism and Restaurants sectors, a change factor of 0.5 or 50% has been considered with the GVA drop being 50%.
Electricity, gas, water and utilities have been considered at 100% representative or minimal impact.
With transport starting to operate, change in transport is considered at a factor of 0.75, with GVA drop being 25%.
While agriculture is not expected to be impacted severely there is a lot of loss of value due to the lockdown, considered at a GVA drop of 20%.
While these are armchair affixed factors, within the macroeconomistโs discipline these should and would be based on statistically determined sectoral simulations. The big-ticket conclusions from the given armchair exercise on the effect of a full 3 month lockdown from April to June on an annualized FY 2020-2021 basis, are the following. A word of caution for the readers, that this is a worst case assumption.
GDP Drop
26%
Value of US$ 624 Billion
Loss of GVA in Agriculture
12%
Value of US$ 52 Billion
Loss of GVA in Industry
27%
Value of US$ 184 Billion
Loss of GVA in Services
31%
Value of US$ 388 Billion
The table below lays out the details of calculation behind the aforesaid numbers:
Base Line GDP 2019-2020 constructed based on GDP growth applied to 2016-17 data gathered from following and applying growth rates 2017-18 (8.2%), 2018-19 (7.2%), 2019-20 (5%) & INR = 0.01402 US$ Source: statisticstimes
It is revealing to compare these estimates to the professional estimates prepared by global financial giants such as Goldman Sachs, Nomura and HSBC.
Goldman Sachs:
Goldman Sachs predicts the Indian economy will shrink by 45% on an annualized basis this quarter, and suffer its most severe recession since 1979 this fiscal year, as the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc on many of its industries. Their latest quarterly growth forecast, detailed in a May 17 note, is significantly worse than its previous estimate of a 20% decline. On the positive side, its economists expect the Indian economy to rebound 20% in the third quarter, compared to the current quarter. They then anticipate 14% growth in the fourth quarter and 6.5% growth in the first quarter of 2021.
Goldman Sachsโ estimate applied to the authorsโ baseline results in the following.
GDP Drop
31%
Value of US$ 730 Billion
Nomura:
Indiaโs real gross domestic product growth is likely to contract 5.2 percent in the financial year ending March 2021, which lowers its economic outlook amidst an extended lockdown. That is against a contraction of 0.4 percent projected earlier. โWe now expect year-on-year growth to remain negative for three consecutive quarters โ with growth faltering to 1.5 percent in Q1 (January-March) before plunging to -14.5 percent in Q2 (April-June), and then weakly recovering to -6.0 percent in Q3 (July-September) and -1.5 percent in Q4 (October-December),โ the research house said in a statement.
Nomuraโs estimate applied to the authorsโ baseline results in the following.
GDP Drop
5.2%
Value of US$ 121 Billion
HSBC:
HSBCโs forecast on GDP decline is not available as yet.
Let us hope that neither ours nor Goldman Sachsโ estimates come to fruition. While a deep recession spares no one, it is unspeakably hard on the poor and working classes with little savings and reliant on day to day work for earnings. Below Poverty Line (BPL) population in India was approximately 22% of the population in 2012. It is expected that loss of millions of jobs as a result of the economic contraction is going to increase this number substantively. These are some of the most vulnerable sections of the society mainly from the eastern states of Bihar, UP, Orissa and Bengal (including illegal immigrants from Bangladesh).
With employment opportunities mainly concentrated in the Western and Southern states of India, a large number of BPL families travel to these states to take up employment as unskilled and semi-skilled labour in sectors such as construction, quarrying, textiles, jewellery making, hospitality and tourism, to name a few. With hardly any leverage in an oversupplied labour market, they continue to remain the most vulnerable and exploited. Since the start of the lockdown, pitiable images of these migrant workers in Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Surat have drawn the attention of the world. Due to the cliff-edge drop in economic activity in the earlier named sectors, they have mostly remained unpaid since the start of the lockdown in India from end-March by unscrupulous private sector employers and contractors. On average their earnings are estimated at around Rs 10,000 per worker, a month.
Only recently since early May, the government organized migrant special trains to transport this restive population back to their hometowns and/or to their extended families. As they now return, by end of May their unpaid wages would total 3 months or a full quarter due to no fault of theirs. At a very conservative estimate, they could number up to a fifth of Indiaโs labour force (of over 500 Million) at 100 Million. These workers potentially support family members numbering between 200 to 400 Million or more. A resurgence in the Indian Economy can only happen if Indiaโs migrant labour are nursed, rehabilitated and motivated to join the rebuilding effort. In line with Pandit Deendayal Upadhyayโs principle of Integral Humanism, the authors lay a case to propose the provision of a special one time grant, to rehabilitate these affected millions.
Migrant Labour Population
Amount in INR as Grant
Number of Months
Cost of Outlay
Outlay Cost in US$
100,000,000
โน10,000
3
โน3,000,000,000,000
$42,060,000,000
A modest grant of โน10,000 per month for 3 months for 100 million workers is going to cost โน 3 lakh crores or US$ 42 billion.
While naysayers will be quick to criticize this as a wasteful โdoleโ one should also consider it from a humanist prism as a stabilization cost for the society. An unstable society is on a slippery slope of a breakdown of law and order. The academic underpinnings of the proposal are anchored in John Maynard Keynesโs Macroeconomic Policy. Keynesian intervention has been successfully used in the past to overcome the 1930โs depression. Fundamentally the macroeconomic equation at any present moment is considered as balance between Aggregate Demand (comprising consumption and investment) and Aggregate Supply (comprising wages, rents, interest and profits). Keynesian macroeconomic policy stipulates that in unprecedented deep recessions boosting the Demand Side of the macroeconomic equation is the only way to kick start the economy.
Given below are adjacently placed tables of Fiscal Stimuli and GDP by Country extracted from the website Statista. Based on the same, the authors have compileda table of gross value of fiscal stimulus in US$. Out of all G20 countries, Japan has passed the largest fiscal stimulus package that amounts to about 21.1 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). This package amounts to about 117.1 trillion Yen (1 Trillion US$), and consists of delivering universal cash handouts of ยฅ100,000 (approximately US$ 930) to every individual in Japan, comprising 126 million people. The USA has also a high fiscal intervention percentage as they did during the 2008 subprime housing-related Economic Crisis.
Fiscal Stimuli.GDP
Country
GDP in Billions of US$
Fiscal Stimuli as % of GDP
Billions of US$
USA
$21,439.45
11%
$2,358.34
China
$14,140.16
2.50%
$353.50
Japan
$5,154.48
21.10%
$1,087.60
Germany
$3,863.64
4.90%
$189.32
India
$2,935.57
3.50%
$102.74
UK
$2,743.59
NA
NA
France
$2,707.07
5%
$135.35
Italy
$1,988.64
1.40%
$27.84
Brazil
$1,847.02
8%
$147.76
Canada
$1,730.91
9.80%
$169.63
Australia
$1,376.26
9.90%
$136.25
The Indian government has recently announced a comprehensive stimulus package of โน20 lakh crore (or 20 trillion) worth approximately $280 Billion Dollars at an old exchange rate of โน = 0.01402 US$, estimated to be 10% of GDP. These are a combination of fiscal, monetary and macro-financial measures.
The key elements of the fiscal package (3.5%) captured in the earlier table are the following:
In-kind (food; cooking gas) and cash transfers to lower-income households
Insurance coverage for workers in the healthcare sector
Financial sector measures for Micro Small Medium Enterprises (MSME) and Non- Banking Finance Companies (NBFC)
Concessional credit to farmers, as well as a credit facility for street vendors and an expansion of food provision for migrant workers.
The monetary and macro-financial measures are structural in nature mainly comprising of regulatory, liquidity and policy amendments pertaining to RBI. One of the excellent policy decisions of the government is in amending legislation to give freedom to farmers to sell their produce anywhere. The new model Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) Act proposes to do away with the concept of notified market area and allow the aforesaid measure. โOver timeโ such a policy decision is going to lead to increased agricultural revenue and even allow India to emerge as a force to reckon with in international markets as farm based value additive agro-units emerge to take advantage of this supply flexibility. There is a tremendous value and demand for Indian agro-produce such as seasonal fruits and vegetables, amongst the Indian diaspora, but mechanisms for their reliable and assured supply is required. Structural changes however strategic in nature, affect the supply side macroeconomic equation and usually take time to create an impact.
There is a legitimate question in the minds of people as to how the government is going to fund the stimulus even if it is just a medium-term (4 year) loan, without controlling runaway inflation. The following is the Debt Status of the top 100 debtors in India (based on their 2019 balance sheet) accessed from Money Control. Analysis of this suggests that public deposits more than adequately cover outstanding debt:
Debt in India
Banking and Finance Sector Debt actually comprises Public deposits held by these financial institutions. Presuming that the Reserve Bank has done its job professionally regarding oversight on the quantum of advances lent by banks, public deposits more than adequately cover the outstanding debt. It also explains how the government can work on a stimulus using public funds. The government also has various other policy tools such as easing controls on the level of deficit financing and external borrowings to name a couple, which has been reticent so far in use. The fear has always been about the decline in value of the Rupee and its adverse impact in funding oil imports, but at a time when every country in the world has thrown such caution to the wind and oil prices are at a historic low, there is a compelling case for more direct fiscal stimulus in the form of direct benefit transfer to Indiaโs migrant labour and daily wagers to kick start the Demand side of the macroeconomic equation.
Economic policy to alleviate the immediate effects of COVID-19 needs to be tactical to stabilize society. The strategy has a long term horizon in terms of yield of aspired results. A fine balance of both approaches should serve India well in the times to come. The present government has displayed a commendable commitment to the highest levels of humanism by initiating the lockdown and thus effectively containing a runaway spread of the pandemic. As preparations are made to restart the economy after the effects of the lockdown, stimulating the demand side of the economy is the need of the hour. Augmenting the already announced fiscal measures by providing succour to Indiaโs itinerant labour with an additional one-time distress grant, will enable them to have a fresh start once the economy opens up again. Industry and Businesses also need to share responsibility towards minimising labour migration by offering them food supplies and a minimum allowance to meet their monthly expense. While the mechanism of identification of the recipients of such a benefit is a technical challenge in its own right and merits an in-depth assessment, this is perhaps one policy that will have wide political consensus in the otherwise fractured polity of India.
Authors: Bhaskar Mukherjee and Professor Sunil Poshakwale
About the Authors: Bhaskar Mukherjee is a Chemical Engineer with over 34 yearsโ experience in the Oil, Gas and Chemicals Business, based in UK. Professor Sunil Poshakwale is Professor of International Finance, School of Management, Cranfield University, England.
