The US intelligence community in its report to the US Congress stated that India, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real provocations from Pakistan.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) in its Annual Threat Assessment report to the US Congress, dismissed the possibilities of general war between the two countries, however, it mentioned that crises between the two are likely to become more intense, risking an escalation.
India while desires normal neighbourly relations, is in no mood to enforce obligatory friendship until Pakistan ensures an environment free of terror, hostility and violence.
The report highlights, “Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations, and heightened tensions raise the risk of conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints.”
India and Pakistan are without high commissioners in each other’s capital since India withdrew the special status of Jammu and Kashmir and bifurcated the state into two union territories in August 2019.
According to the ODNI report, while the fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria has a direct bearing on US forces, the tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan remain a concern for the entire world.
The report which was released in Washington recently focuses on both immediate and distant future possibilities and is designed to help policymakers anticipate the forces which are likely to shape the world in the next five to 20 years.