In a startling revelation, Twitter user @India_Progress has revealed that CICERO, the agency which has been hired by Aaj Tak India Today group for conduction Opinion Poll surveys in Delhi, has AAP on its list of clients. A visit to CICERO’s site, shows that they proudly claim that both Aaj Tak and AAP are their clients. In fact Aaj Tak and AAP are the first names on their clients list.
In such a situation, one must wonder whether such a conflict of interest played any role in any of the Aaj Tak Opinion Polls for Delhi elections. Also there are reports of an internal survey by AAP. Did CICERO conduct this survey for AAP? The data from the Opinion Polls done by CICERO is as follows:
| Date of Opinion Poll | Vote Share AAP % | Vote Share BJP % | Vote Share INC % | Vote Share Others % | Seats AAP | Seats BJP | Seats INC | Seats Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2014 | 36 | 39 | 16 | NA | 28 | 37 | 4 | 1 |
| 12/01/2015 | 36 | 40 | 16 | 8 | 28 | 37 | 4 | 1 |
| 03/02/2015 | 43.5 | 35.5 | 13 | NA | 41 | 22 | 5 | 2 |
If we compare the above surveys with other surveys, as per our compilation chart, we can see that CICERO is the ONLY agency which is giving AAP more than 40 seats. Can these projections be relied upon?
It has also been revealed that CICERO is in fact run by a Congress leader. As per this report dated November 2013, CICERO has two directors, Sunit Kumar Madhur and Dhananjai Joshi as per information available on the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) website. On the current site however, only Mr Joshi’s name is visible. The report further says that, Mr Sunit Kumar Madhur was a secretary in the Delhi Pradesh Congress Committee (DPCC), as per information available on the Congress website.
Can an Agency run by a Congress leader conduct truly unbiased Opinion Polls?
Can an Agency which has AAP as a client, and has done surveys for AAP, conduct truly unbiased Opinion Polls?
Should Aaj Tak have revealed these Conflicts of Interest while publishing their Opinion Polls?
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