On 26th December, Euronews reported exclusive confirmation from Azerbaijani government sources that the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Aktau on 25 December was caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile. The sources claimed that the shrapnel of a Russian missile struck the passengers and cabin crew when it burst adjacent to Flight J28432 in midair after the missile was launched at the aircraft during anti-drone operations over Grozny in Russia.
According to Azerbaijani government sources who spoke to Euronews, the damaged aircraft was forced to fly over the Caspian Sea towards Aktau, Kazakhstan and was not permitted to land at any Russian airport, even though the pilots had requested an emergency landing. Notably, the flight from Baku in Azerbaijan was going to Grozny in Russia’s Chechnya. Data indicated that along the flight path above the sea, the plane’s GPS navigation systems were jammed.
According to the Baku-based international portal AnewZ, the missile was fired from a Pantsir-S air defence system, citing Azerbaijani government sources. AnewZ also quoted a Russian military blogger who claimed that “the damage to the aircraft suggests that plane may have been accidentally struck by an air-defence missile system”.
Russian reports stated that the country’s air defence personnel were actively trying to shoot down Ukrainian UAVs when the Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft was flying over Chechnya. Khamzat Kadyrov, the president of the Chechen Republic’s Security Council, acknowledged the 25th December morning’s drone attack on Grozny but insisted that there were no injuries or damage.
Chechen capital Grozny is heavily defended by Russian forces as it is a potential target for Ukraine’s drones. In recent times Ukraine has carried out several drone attacks in Russian cities.
Notably, photos and videos of the aircraft appear to show puncture damage to at least the left side of the vertical stabilizer.
📍Azərbaycan rəsmiləri hadisə yerindədirlər pic.twitter.com/KgjodRlPrv
— 𝑬𝒍𝒎𝒊𝒓✍❪𐰠𐰢𐰃𐰼❫ (@_Elmir_S) December 25, 2024
From all these accounts, it implies that the passenger flight was accidentally hit by a Russian missile mistaking it for a Ukrainian drone. 38 of 87 people on the flight died in the crash. The plane was carrying 37 passengers were Azerbaijani nationals, 18 Russians, 6 Kazakhstani and 6 Kyrgyzstani citizens.
In an official statement, Azerbaijan Airlines announced that until the investigation is concluded, flights en route Baku-Grozny-Baku and Baku-Makhachkala-Baku will remain suspended.
Flight tracking website Flightradar24 showed flight J28432 hovering over Aktau in the shape of 8 before crashing. Its altitude moved up and down during this period.
Flightradar24 posted on 𝕏 saying that the aircraft Embraer ERJ-190 was exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny, and its altitude was oscillating for 74 minutes before the crash near Aktau Airport. It said that during the 74 minutes of flight J28243, the vertical speed oscillated between positive and negative values more than 100 times with peak values at -8300 feet per min and +8300 feet per min.
What we know about Azerbaijan Airlines flight #J28243
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 25, 2024
Aircraft: Embraer ERJ-190
Registration: 4K-AZ65
Age: 11 years
Origin: Baku (GYD)
Destination : Grozny (GRV)
Average flight time: 57 minutes
The aircraft was exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny.
The altitude was… pic.twitter.com/degVXopts2
According to a report published by the portal, valid ADS-B position data was received from the aircraft until 04:25 UTC when the flight encountered significant GPS interference. The aircraft stopped sending positional data altogether for the period between 04:25 and 04:37. It added that “between 04:37 and 04:40 the aircraft sent likely erroneous position data.” Flightradar24 has also published granular ADS-B data of the flight.
This would be the second time in ten years that Russian forces have destroyed a commercial aircraft following the MH17 tragedy in Ukraine if the initial evidence is accurate. In July 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, a Boeing 777-200ER, was shot down by pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine using a Russian Buk 9M38 surface-to-air missile. All 283 passengers and 15 crew were killed in the attack that took place just 4 months after the mysterious disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.
This time, the victims include both Russian nationals and people from nearby nations. The event also brings to mind a previous occurrence in November 2018, in which an Air Astana Embraer 190 lost its hydraulics over Portugal but managed to make a safe landing with the assistance of the Portuguese Air Force.
The circumstances surrounding the missile’s fire, the non-authorization for landing at a nearby Russian airfield, and the directive to cross the sea with a damaged plane are all expected to be unveiled by more research into the incident. The current crash claimed the lives of 38 passengers. The flight was redirected because of poor weather conditions. It had been headed from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia.