On 26th February (local time), Ukraine reportedly reached a significant agreement with the United States that gives the US the upper hand in Ukraine’s natural minerals. The BBC quoted an unnamed senior official in Kyiv confirming the development. The details of the deal remain undisclosed. However, the official described it as a “positive outcome” after key amendments were made.
According to media reports, Washington has withdrawn its initial demand for $500 billion in potential revenue from Ukraine’s natural resources. However, Ukraine’s request for firm security guarantees has not been met. Instead, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, stated that the deal gives Ukraine “the right to continue fighting” along with $350 billion and a lot of equipment. He also emphasised that the financial and military aid provided by the US is crucial to Ukraine’s survival in the war.
REPORTER: What does Ukraine get in this mineral deal?
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 25, 2025
TRUMP: Military equipment and the right to fight on pic.twitter.com/NDDendMEpx
Trump also hinted that the US might continue supplying arms and ammunition until it reaches a deal with Russia. Notably, this marks a significant shift in American policy towards ending the conflict.
Zelenskyy is reportedly scheduled to visit Washington DC soon, probably this week, to sign the deal. Trump has been projecting the deal as a way to recover US taxpayer money that has been spent on Ukraine so far.
The deal’s financial structure
Reports suggest that Ukraine has vast deposits of minerals, including oil and gas. These minerals and elements are essential for modern industries. Trump claimed that the deal would allow the US to recover more than what it has spent on Ukraine. Reportedly, the agreement includes a jointly owned fund, allowing revenue from Ukraine’s state-owned mineral resources to be used to rebuild the war-torn nation.
As per the terms of the deal, Ukraine would contribute 50% of its future proceeds from oil, gas, and mineral deposits to the fund. These funds would then be invested in infrastructure and economic projects within the country. Kyiv believes that this is a more favourable arrangement than earlier proposals. On the other hand, there are concerns that the financial stake arising from this deal will incentivise Washington to remain committed to Ukraine’s security in the long term.
The shifting geopolitics – is the US aligning with Russia?
The mineral deal comes at a time of uncertainty regarding Washington’s stance on the war. Not long ago, Trump labelled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” and appeared to blame Ukraine for starting the war.
He also accused Zelensky of failing to negotiate peace and suggested that Ukraine had rejected a previous US-backed proposal that could have ended the war sooner. Meanwhile, the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, also made a strategic move. He offered the US access to rare minerals, including those in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine.
The offer has heightened fears in Kyiv and across Europe that Ukraine could be sidelined in future negotiations between Washington and Moscow.
Rubio-Lavrov meeting: steps towards a US-Russia deal?
Earlier, OpIndia reported on the meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Saudi Arabia on 18th February 2025. Interestingly, Zelensky was also in Riyadh at the time, but he was excluded from these talks.
After the meeting, the US State Department confirmed that discussions focused on restoring diplomatic staffing, supporting Ukraine peace talks, and enhancing US-Russia economic cooperation. Recently, Trump also held a call with Russian President Putin, during which they reportedly agreed on a ceasefire plan.
While Washington is shifting its priorities, there are discussions of a peace settlement that could limit Ukraine’s NATO ambitions, leaving Kyiv in a precarious position. Ukraine’s resources have now become an American economic interest, leading to a broader question: will the deal keep Ukraine secure, or is it merely a financial transaction designed to benefit the US?
