On January 8, 2025, a high-level meeting between India’s Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri, and Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Minister, Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi, took place in Dubai. This engagement marks a crucial shift in India’s Afghanistan policy, with talks focusing on key issues like trade, security, and the use of the Chabahar Port. Following the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, India had taken a cautious stance, pausing diplomatic ties with the new regime. However, recent regional developments, particularly escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, have prompted India to reassess its strategy and re-engage with Afghanistan. This reset is not only a step toward rebuilding historical ties but also a response to the evolving geopolitical landscape in South Asia.
Historical Ties Between India and Afghanistan
India and Afghanistan have a rich history of diplomatic and cultural ties, particularly since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. India’s $3 billion in aid to Afghanistan has supported development in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and governance. Indian-built infrastructure like the Salma Dam, the Zaranj-Delaram Highway, and the Afghan Parliament symbolized India’s deep involvement in Afghanistan’s reconstruction.

Afghanistan’s people-to-people ties with India have also remained strong, with Afghan students studying in India and medical patients benefiting from Indian healthcare. This relationship was halted by the Taliban’s return in 2021, but it is now being revived with strategic intent.

Disruptions Following the Taliban Takeover
The Taliban’s sudden takeover in 2021 disrupted India-Afghanistan relations. India, like many countries, evacuated its diplomatic staff from Afghanistan, freezing official ties. Pakistan and its sympathizers celebrated the Taliban’s return as a strategic victory, suggesting that India’s investments in Afghanistan were now “wasted”. Western media echoed this sentiment, often highlighting India’s “miscalculation” in investing heavily in post-2001 Afghanistan. Headlines predicted the end of India’s influence in Kabul, framing the situation as a geopolitical setback.
However, India’s approach of cautious engagement and humanitarian aid has kept open channels for dialogue, allowing for today’s diplomatic reset.
Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations: Escalation and Strategic Consequences
Recent months have seen a sharp escalation in tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistani airstrikes on Afghan territory, particularly in Kunar and Khost provinces, have resulted in civilian casualties, triggering anger and outrage in Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s leadership has openly condemned Pakistan’s aggression, warning that continued provocations could lead to severe consequences for Islamabad.
Adding to the strain are reports that Pakistan may have plans to seize the Wakhan Corridor, a narrow stretch of land connecting Afghanistan to China. Afghan leaders have responded forcefully, asserting that any attempt to occupy Afghan territory would result in prolonged conflict. Afghanistan’s Defense Minister has warned Pakistan of potential retaliation, raising concerns of a protracted and asymmetric conflict.
There is growing speculation that Afghanistan could adopt Pakistan’s own strategy of “bleeding with a thousand cuts”, a tactic Pakistan has employed for decades against India. If Afghanistan begins supporting insurgent groups in Pakistan, it could lead to a devastating internal conflict for Pakistan, further destabilizing the region.
Pakistan-Tajikistan Meeting and Wakhan Corridor Plans
Reports suggest that the Wakhan Corridor may have been a topic of discussion during the recent Pakistan-Tajikistan meeting. For Pakistan, controlling this strategic corridor would provide direct access to China, bolstering its regional position. Tajikistan, sharing a border with Afghanistan via the corridor, may see security benefits in collaborating with Pakistan. However, such a move would severely undermine Afghan sovereignty and pose a challenge to India, as Pakistan would gain increased access to Central Asia and expand its strategic influence.

This scenario also threatens India’s regional connectivity efforts, particularly through Iran’s Chabahar Port, which serves as an alternative route to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan. Strengthened Pakistan-Tajikistan cooperation could shift the regional balance of power, making it imperative for India to re-engage with Afghanistan to protect its interests.
Mutual Benefits of India-Afghanistan Relations
Rebuilding India-Afghanistan relations would bring substantial benefits to both countries across several dimensions:
• Revival of Infrastructure Projects: India’s halted development projects in Afghanistan, including road construction, healthcare facilities, and schools, could be revived, boosting employment and economic stability in Afghanistan.
• Access to Central Asia: Afghanistan serves as a gateway to Central Asia for India. Strengthening ties would enhance India’s connectivity to resource-rich Central Asia via the Chabahar Port and potential trade routes through Afghanistan.
• Chabahar Port Development: Continued cooperation in developing Iran’s Chabahar Port would facilitate smoother trade between India and Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan and reducing reliance on volatile border regions.

• Soft Power Influence: Cricket, as a cultural bridge, strengthens ties between Indian and Afghan societies. By continuing to offer training and infrastructure support, India can use cricket to foster goodwill and unity, enhancing its soft power in Afghanistan.
• India’s Support to Afghan Cricket: India has been instrumental in the development of Afghan cricket, providing facilities and training that have helped the Afghan national cricket team rise to international prominence.

Humanitarian Aid
- Food and Medicine Supplies: India’s humanitarian assistance has been crucial for Afghanistan, especially during times of economic distress and conflict. Continued support would reinforce India’s role as a key partner in Afghanistan’s recovery.
- Educational Scholarships: Afghan students have benefited from Indian educational scholarships. Expanding this cooperation can help Afghanistan’s youth build a better future, fostering goodwill between the two nations.
Security Cooperation
- Counterterrorism Collaboration: Both India and Afghanistan face threats from extremist groups like ISIS-K and Taliban offshoots. Increased cooperation in intelligence-sharing and counterterrorism efforts could help both nations stabilize the region.
• Border Security: Enhanced security cooperation would ensure that Afghan soil is not used for activities detrimental to Indian interests, particularly regarding terrorist groups that threaten India’s national security.
Strategic Counter to Pakistan: Afghanistan’s Potential Retaliation
A strengthened India-Afghanistan partnership would have profound implications for Pakistan. Faced with growing tensions on its western border, Pakistan could find itself locked in a decades-long armed struggle with Afghanistan if the latter adopts a strategy of “bleeding with a thousand cuts”. This approach, historically used by Pakistan against India, would see Afghanistan supporting insurgent movements within Pakistan’s borders, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, regions already rife with separatist sentiments.
A prolonged conflict with Afghanistan would drain Pakistan’s economic and military resources, exacerbating its internal instability. This could provide India with a strategic advantage, as a weakened Pakistan would be less capable of focusing on its eastern front. A destabilized Pakistan might also lose its grip on Pakistan-occupied Jammu & Kashmir (PoJK), giving India an opportunity to assert control over the region, a long-standing goal in India’s foreign policy.
Conclusion: A Strategic Realignment in South Asia
From India’s perspective, rebuilding relations with Afghanistan is not just a diplomatic necessity but a strategic imperative. In the face of Pakistan’s ambitions and the growing instability in the region, a strong India-Afghanistan partnership could serve as a powerful counterbalance to Pakistan’s influence. Additionally, it would strengthen India’s connectivity to Central Asia, enhance regional security, and provide Afghanistan with much-needed economic and humanitarian support.
As Pakistan faces the prospect of a prolonged conflict with Afghanistan, India can leverage this situation to further weaken its adversary, thereby reshaping the balance of power in South Asia.