Much has been said about the recent downturn in the India-Canada relationship caused by the untimely demise of a terrorist. The purpose of this article is not to go into the details of that. Canada is too inconsequential a nation to merit that much attention unless you are looking for some country to emigrate to and can’t find any better.
I will just say call me a sceptic. If India indeed wanted to assassinate some extremist to send signals to the others, there are far more juicier targets. That it was done so close to G20 and our sleuths know it’s no Karachi, stretches credulity.
But the affair must cause India to ask some hard questions and seek answers.
Let us go over those.
First and most important question must be – how reliable an ally is the West?
Events of the past week or so provide a mixed set of answers.
It somewhat re-confirms that India is indeed a valuable ally of the West, for which it is willing to ignore such incidents with a wink and a nod as well as “boilerplate statements” as one BBC report puts it. The NYT report, likely a US deep state plant, tells us Americans spied on our diplomats. No surprises there, everyone does it to everyone else – but essentially confirms even before the G20, Uncle Biden and Kaka Sunak knew and chose not to bother. After all their body language and interactions were nothing short of friendly. Far from using this affair to squeeze us on Ukraine, they let India (and Indonesia etc.) drive the agenda on the final statement. Trudeau was left to paddle up the creek alone. It could change in the coming days, but so far they’ve given a shit. That’s exactly how it should be. After all, this was a terrorist, not a movie star or Nobel laureate or even a common plumber as corrupt liberal media projects.
Let’s face it, no one, not even India’s thickest friend is going to stand up and say “Boy! Are we glad you guys bumped this fellow off?! Cool!” or words to that effect. Everyone will keep a grave face, “raise concerns” make solemn motherhood statements and promise to “stand by” the rule of law. When the cameras are off, they may have a good laugh. What matters is what they DO. What is said in private, perhaps? It is entirely possible Biden dropped a word or two but that is probably about all of it. We will never know at least not until it matters.
If that is the good news, then there’s bad news too.
For one, it provides discomforting evidence that Nijjar and other extremists are not just given refuge by the West, they are also useful idiots or free or cheap foot soldiers for the West. After all, if NYT and Canadian media say US/Canadian Intelligence warned Nijjar and others, including Pannu, in advance about potential ‘threats’ from India, instead of warning India about their activities, that sure means they want them around? Maybe because they are useful? Maybe because they are their valued employees? Your guess is as good as mine.
Secondly, it is clear the so-called “independent” Western media which we all know faithfully parrots narratives handed over by Western intelligence, is trying to blow it up and create trouble and not even bother to give Indians the benefit of the doubt. Coverage of Nijjar as a “plumber” and “activist” insults the intelligence of most readers and shows a callous disregard for victims of terror, if they’re Indian, especially if Hindu. It is no different from Pakistan media covering “freedom fighters” like Hafiz Saeed. What does that tell us? You can guess the mood of the master from the dog’s bark. Uncle clearly didn’t snap his fingers to shut them up.
It tells us, we must assume the worst and always have a Plan B in mind.
Obviously, I am not saying we downgrade our engagements with the Americans. It is debatable who needs who more, but the point is we need them. The show must go on. But we just can’t fool ourselves that we are a Grade A ally in the same inner circle as Australia, UK or Canada. It is not a coincidence that the so-called “5 eyes” only have WASPs. This is not gonna change just as I am not going to wake up one day, blonde and blue-eyed.
Much of course, depends on whether the woke left continues to rule or not. But even when they are down and out, without direct political power, they control the deep state, academia, and the media. Ask a guy by the name of Donald Trump.
But even under a vigorously pro-Indian right-wing administration (Bush, Trump sort), any juicy arms deals, potential green signals or even help for going after Sikh or Islamist terrorists will be counterbalanced by increased sensitivity to evangelist interests and protection of domestic jobs, trade barriers and the like. It will not be a road paved with gold.
There is also a very high risk of the USA and China kissing and making up (if Xi is out of the picture or in a variety of other scenarios) – leaving lackeys that are not in the inner inner inner-inner-circle out to dry or thrown under the bus.
What is the Plan B?
To put it simply, we can’t foolishly ape the Pakistanis. After all, the Pakis printed thousands of “India” cards and distributed them to all and sundry – to play against Pakistan! Now any country that wants Pakistan to “behave” can flash one of those cards, it gets results. Their all-consuming hate for India has put them in a hole they can’t dig themselves out of, without considerable loss of face or total regime change.
Are we printing “China” cards by the dozen and handing them out to the West? If yes, that is foolish. I am sad to say, there are signs we are indeed doing that. It will be used to trump us. Sooner or later.
Of course, China is a big threat – to our territory and many other things. I am NOT trying to deny that. There is none other than the English-speaking West that shares similar threat perceptions. The rest are neutral or not bothered or worse, play both sides.
But a cool, careful reassessment of the security challenges, opportunities and strategy is in order. Our angst over historical atrocities (read Mughals) and the “all-weather” alliance between Maoist-Marxism and jihadist terrorism or the China-Pakistan nexus, about which I have written more than enough, should not blind us to the possibilities. They must open our eyes but cannot become chains in our feet. We cannot change our past, but the future is very much ours to mould.
China’s decline
The rapid decline of China helps us in this regard. While rumours of its imminent economic collapse are probably exaggerated, its recent troubles, combined with population decline and declining returns from old “build it, they will come” policies, are very real and very significant. Palatable policy alternatives likely don’t exist or are not effective. The Tamil saying “drinking ginger tea after swallowing the iron pestle” comes to mind. China’s housing stock excess, to cite but one example, can house more than its entire 1.4 billion population. I am not saying this, the ex-head of China’s statistics bureau did. That state of drunken stupor from post-2008 orgy will take decades to unwind. There are other statistics that can boggle your mind. Recently Singapore arrested a few Chinese scamsters that use its property and financial markets to launder allegedly ill-gotten funds – guess how much? Well, more than $2 billion! That’s just one tiny gang. NO one knows how much money has escaped, never to be caught or returned. At some point, the Chinese RMB will reflect this massive flight of capital and systemic issues. That’ll cause GDP etc. to plunge in dollar terms.
Ideally, this should coincide with a period of friendly cooperation with the US-led West, which should have less to fear from a reduced China. Already forecasts of when China’s economy will overtake the USA are being rewritten well beyond this generation or even next.
But we don’t live in an ideal world. The military-industrial complex needs new enemies to survive. The wokes and the evangelists need new converts to keep their religion going. While anything can happen, conflict may be not armed but everything short of it is more likely than not. Is that our only “value” to the West?
The corollary to that is, barring bizarre and foolish aggression to divert attention, China has very little reason to rattle swords at us – especially if we strike a deal. Look at it this way – Modi has stood up to them, even provoked them to the worst extent in the last 50+ years. All they could do was grab a few square inches of land even going by adverse media reports.
The simultaneous near collapse of Pakistan adds another factor – it is a much less useful coolie and a write off as an investment.
Instead of thumbing noses at the Chinese “We have this new Godfather that’s gonna protect us”, why not tell them “Look, what do you want from us, so we don’t go around looking for Godfathers?”. The answer may surprise us. Or maybe the answer will convince us to give up all pretences of “nonaligned, independent” etc., and sign up lock stock and barrel with Uncle Sam instead of taking 15 years to decide on letting QUAD set up bases here. Either way, it is worth our while finding out! And I am not sure we are trying. There is not enough material out there in the public domain that suggests we are talking seriously with them.
Yes, China is a racist xenophobic power, an unreliable ally, it is extremely selfish and mean in dealing with its serfs – like Philippines or even Pakistan whom it refuses to give a blank cheque. It continues to squeeze Pakistan’s balls on power dues and other matters. But we are too big to be a serf – I am talking about a relation of equals or even an undeclared truce. And we are not offering them marriage.
Yet another point I would like to repeat is a slight variation of my recent article about focusing less on Mughals. It applies to foreign policy too. Our issues with Islamism and the jihadist violence it spawns, while no doubt serious, are largely historical and legacy.
They are not a clear and present danger. And it is a threat that is declining by the day. I know this sounds controversial, but I am convinced it is true.
Even if oil era doesn’t end, Middle East appetite for bank rolling Islamists and fanatics has dried up.
As we rise as a power and feel increasingly stronger and good, we will find this more and more true. You can’t say the same of the threat from West.
The threat of Islamism and China pales into insignificance when compared to the billions that woke left fascists, the deep state of the West and evangelist forces pump into India and will continue to pump, to destroy us from within. Until the last Hindu “heathen” is killed, converted or turned zombie that worships them. That is a clear and present danger.
We may be West’s closest ally, but West will not lift a finger to help us on that. On the contrary, these are their force multipliers. It would be foolish indeed to expect them to give it up.
Nijjar and Pannu are examples of that. One living and the other dead.
I do hope the powers that be draw the right lessons and come to appropriate conclusions. They know better. If I were EAM I would be dialling Beijing, calling for a meeting of consiglieri and preparing for the Dons to meet. I can recommend a few nice restaurants in Hong Kong.
