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As Mamata Banerjee appears set to win big, here are 6 things that went wrong for the BJP

K Bhattacharjee
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As Mamata Banerjee appears set to win big, here are 6 things that went wrong for the BJP

Mamata Banerjee is well on her way to registering a thumping victory for the Trinamool Congress in the West Bengal Elections 2021. The BJP, which was expecting to create history, has received a stunning setback with its vote-share decreasing from 2019.

The party might look for some consolation in something or the other but, truth be told, there isn’t any. There is no way to spin this, the results were disastrous for the BJP. Nevertheless, there are certain factors that went against the BJP in retrospect.

Hyperfocus on Matuas and Mahisyas did not pay off

The hyperfocus on the Matua and Mahisya community does not appear to have paid off. Matua dominated constituencies are being won by the Trinamool Congress as of this moment. The Mahisyas dominate South Bengal and that is where the BJP derived its core strength from in 2019.

But even there, the Trinamool Congress has managed to make massive inroads. Simultaneously, the hyperfocus on individual identities deflected from the BJP’s primary hopes on Hindu consolidation. The net effect was clearly negative for the BJP.

No local leader to match Mamata Banerjee

This is more obvious. The Bengal BJP does not have any leader to match the incumbent Chief Minister’s stature in Bengal politics. True, leaders such as Dilip Ghosh, Locket Chatterjee and some others are popular in the state. But they are clearly no match for Mamata Banerjee.

The biggest mass leader in the state is Suvendu Adhikari, and he is someone who joined the BJP very recently. On its own, it just did not have anyone to match Banerjee. With Prime Minister Modi not on the ballot in the Assembly Elections, the party paid the price.

It is also to be noted that there were likely some BJP voters in 2019 who preferred Narendra Modi as Prime Minister but Mamata Banerjee as Chief Minister. If such voters were even 3-4% of the electorate, that is enough to change the fortunes of the party completely.

Intra-party angst due to influx of TMC turncoats

The inclusion of numerous Trinamool leaders in the party created some angst among the workers of the party. The workers had terrible relationships with some of these leaders. Some of the TMC turncoats themselves had fomented violence against BJP workers.

Therefore, the inclusion of such leaders in the party is likely to have angered workers on the ground. It is unclear the extent to which it affected the party’s fate in Bengal.

Inclusion of TMC turncoats denting image

The inclusion of TMC turncoats into the party might have even dented the BJP’s image among voters. There were doubts raised by some that some of these leaders were corrupt and had a negative perception among the electorate.

At the time, it seemed that the inclusion of such leaders was sinking the TMC boat and awarded the momentum to the BJP. But in retrospect, it could have worked the other way as well.

Non-implementation of CAA

The CAA was passed late in 2019 and one and a half years later, the law has still not been implemented. The delay in implementation of the law has been attributed to the Coronavirus crisis and it has been promised that it will be implemented as soon as the crisis was dealt with.

But the electorate on the ground cannot be blamed for not caring about such details. Meanwhile, the Trinamool government in Bengal announced several schemes for the Matuas, the community most affected by the law.

Thus, while the community received concrete benefits from the TMC, all they received from the BJP were promises in the abstract that had not yet been implemented. The voting pattern in Matua dominated constituencies does indicate that the delay in CAA affected the results.

Ticket distribution

Certain people associated with the BJP had raised issues with the ticket distribution in the polls. It was said that many who had worked hard for the party had been sidelined while turncoats and celebrities had been awarded the ticket in key seats.

For instance, in Behala Purba, Sovan Chatterjee, who is a TMC turncoat himself, did not receive a ticket and it was instead awarded to celebrity Payal Sarkar. That had caused significant anguish among Chatterjee’s supporters. Sovan Chatterjee had quit the party as well.

All in all, everything that could go wrong for the BJP appears to have gone wrong. And everything that Mamata Banerjee needed to work in her favour did work.

Himanta Biswa Sarma wins by over 1 lakh votes from Jalukbari constituency, Assam Congress president Ripun Bora loses from Gohpur

OpIndia Staff
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Himanta Biswa Sarma wins by over 1 lakh votes from Jalukbari constituency, Assam Congress president Ripun Bora loses from Gohpur

BJP leader and NEDA convenor Dr. Himanta Biswa Sarma has won the assembly election with a record margin of over 1 lakh votes. The senior minister in the outgoing BJP led govt won the polls by 1,01,911 votes from Jalukbari constituency, comprehensively defeating Romen Barthakur.

Dr. Sarma has now won the seat for the consecutive fifth time with this win, and his winning margin has been increasing with every election, defying any anti-incumbency that most politicians face. His winning margin in 2016 was around 85935, while the same was 77403 in 2011. He had won by 34480 votes in 2006 and by 35035 votes in 2001. While he won the current and the last elections from BJP, the previous elections were won from Congress ticket, as he had joined BJP in 2015.

Himanta Biswa Sarma campaigned in Jalukbari constituency for himself for only one day, on the last day of the campaigning for the third and last phase of the polls. He would have been unable to campaign on the last day also, as the Election Commission had imposed a 48 hour ban on him from campaigning when 2 days of election campaign were remaining. But the same was reduced to 24 hours after Dr Sarma tendered an unconditional apology for his comments on BPF chief Hagrama Mohilary that had led to the ban.

While he had not campaigned for himself, he campaigned most for the party during the elections. He had attended several election rallies, roadshows and padayatras at various constituencies across the state, campaigning for alliance candidates.

Assam CM Sarbananda Sonowal has won by over 42,000 votes from Majuli, and Assam BJP president Ranjeet Kumar Dass has won from the Patacharkuchi constituency.

On the other hand, state Congress leader Ripun Bora had to face defeat from Gohpur constituency. He was defeated by BJP leader Utpal Borah.

While the counting for the elections is still going on, NDA is set to form the next government as it projected to win 76 seats in the 126-seat assembly. The Congress led alliance is leading in 45 seats. However, the question over the CM still remains, as BJP didn’t project current CM Sarbananda Sonowal as its CM candidate, and Himanta Biswa Sarma was seen as a strong contender for the post.

BJP office in Arambagh burnt to ashes by suspected TMC goons, violence erupts in Beliaghata as trends show TMC landslide

OpIndia Staff
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BJP office in Arambagh burnt to ashes by suspected TMC goons, violence erupts in Beliaghata as trends show TMC landslide

The trends that have come in so far in the counting process shows a decisive victory for TMC. According to EC trends at 4:20 PM, TMC was ahead in 208 seats and BJP was ahead in 79 seats. As soon as the news of victory came in, TMC started gheraoing BJP office in Kolkata. Now, news has come in the violence has erupted in Arambagh and a BJP office there has been burnt to ashes.

Anindya Banerjee, journalist with TV9 tweeted the visuals of a BJP office being burnt to the ground in Arambagh.

According to him, BJP suspects TMC goons behind the incident, however, TMC has denied any responsibility for the violence.

Reportedly, other than in Arambagh, violence has erupted also in Beliaghata area of Kolkata.

Anindya has reported that BJP cadres are being targeted in these areas.

TMC workers gherao BJP office in Kolkata

As per initial trends, TMC is ahead in the state of West Bengal in at least 200 seats. As trends showed a landslide victory for Mamata Banerjee led TMC, the workers of the party have now reportedly gheraoed the BJP office in Hastings, Kolkata. After the predicted decisive victory for TMC, there have been fears that BJP workers and those who supported and voted for the party might face backlash from the TMC and its workers.

The euphoria of TMC workers was also visible in Asansol. After the Election Commission asked the officials and police to ensure that no congregations are allowed post-election results, the Bengal police was seen instructing TMC party workers to stop their celebrations and maintain protocol amidst rising COVID-19 cases. Instead of paying heed to what Bengal police were asking them to comply with, the TMC workers were seen bursting a fire cracker right next to the police officer to intimidate the officer.

Exclusive: Oxygen refilling station owner harassed by Delhi govt, says officials sealed station, seized cylinders and detained employees

OpIndia Staff
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Exclusive: Oxygen refilling station owner harassed by Delhi govt, says officials sealed station, seized cylinders and detained employees

Amidst the ongoing shortage of medical oxygen in Delhi due to the surge in the Covid-19 cases, allegations have emerged that the refillers are facing harassment from the govt, and the general public, who were sourcing oxygen cylinders from such refillers, are now finding it difficult to get oxygen.

Advocate Amit Kumar Singh, the founder of NGO HUM – Dedicated for Sewa, posted a video message in which he described the situation after Delhi govt took over the oxygen refilers in the city. According to Kumar, the attendants of the Covid-19 patients who were arranging medical oxygen from the refillers are unable to arrange them now as the Government has closed down their operations. Only 13 refillers are allowed to provide medical oxygen, but the numbers released by the Government are non-responsive.

Amit Kumar Singh said that the Delhi govt has sealed an oxygen refiller at West Vinod Nagar in Delhi, and seized the cylinders from them. He also said that after that the govt released the numbers of 6 oxygen agencies, but none of them is picking the phone. Singh suggested that the Delhi govt should let the refilling agency function by deploying its officials there, and allow the private refilers to continue operating.

Refiller station owner claimed harassment by DM officials

Following the video of Amit Kumar Singh went viral on social media, OpIndia reached out to the refilling station mentioned by Singh to learn about the difficulties they are facing. On the condition of anonymity, the owner of the refilling agency told us that since the orders were passed by the Delhi Government to deploy teams at the medical oxygen refilling stations, their station has been shut down by the authorities. He informed that the government officials confiscated their cylinders and closed down the premises. He further added that his team members were also picked by the government officials to present them at DM’s office.

The owner broke down while talking to OpIndia and said, “They have closed my refilling station. People are calling me. Now tell me from where I can arrange oxygen for them? They picked my team members and harassed them. It was torture. They took away my cylinders too. I have no answer for anyone who is seeking help. ”

When we searched on social media, his refilling station’s address is still being widely shared on social media as a genuine source for medical oxygen.

Delhi Government ordered DMs to deploy teams at refilling centres

On April 28, Delhi Government had issued an order in which it directed District Magistrates to deploy teams to ensure medical oxygen shall be sold by the retailers and refillers strictly in accordance with the license conditions. The order was supposed to smoothen the supply of medical oxygen in the national capital, but it seems to have led to harassment of the refilling station owners.

After trends show TMC victory, party workers and Islamists resort to name-calling, threaten BJP supporters with violence

OpIndia Staff
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After trends show TMC victory, party workers and Islamists resort to name-calling, threaten BJP supporters with violence

On Sunday (May 2), Trinamool Congress (TMC) workers and rabid Islamists resorted to threatening, name-calling BJP supporters after initial trends showed a comfortable TMC victory in West Bengal.

The initial tweets by the vicious lot were focused on the dehumanisation of BJP supporters, coupled with vicious expletives and name-calling. While gloating about the possible TMC return to power, Zulfiqar Ali emphasised, “West Bengal vaccinated itself against Sanghi virus.” The insensitive tweet drew parallels between a virus and a BJP supporter, amidst the threat posed to humanity by the Wuhan Coronavirus.

Screengrab of the Twitter post

Another Twitter user order the ‘mother f*cker’ progeny of BJP supporters to show up at 6 pm in the night on social media, assuming that the election result will be known by then.

Screengrab of the Twitter post

Abusive tweets by Islamists, and TMC workers metamorphose into ‘death threats’

While abusive tweets denigrating political rivals are not a new phenomenon, Islamists and TMC supporters decided to take a step forward. They began threatening ‘Sanghis’ with violence, murder, and potential physical harm. Islamist Fahmi Riyaz said, “Would love to see Sanghis getting treatment after TMC wins. Need blood coming out of their head.”

Screengrab of the tweet

Another Twitter user (@Despacito524) shared a picture of a man with a knife, along with the caption “BJP workers after Mamata wins.” He insinuated that BJP workers will be mercilessly stabbed with knives once the incumbent Trinamool Congress returns back to power.

Screengrab of the Twitter post

On Instagram, an account called Despacito had also threatened to harm ‘filthy hindi outsider bastards’ following Mamata Banerjee’s victory. “Bohot charbi chari hai tum logo ki (You guys have become bold). Just wait and watch what we do you filthy Hindi outsider bastards after Mamata wins.”

Screengrab of the Instagram DM

Another Twitter user (@InZizek) threatened, “My dear tamils… this is a warning…if this what you have decided to vote for BJP… there will be consequences… you will be hunted down like hunger games. Trust me.” He further warned of a ‘Sanghi hunting season’ with no mercy and irrespective of blood relations. “There will be a sanghi hunting season…No mercy..No same blood…No brother or sister.”

Screengrab of the Twitter post

TMC workers gherao BJP office in Kolkata

As per initial trends, TMC is ahead in the state of West Bengal in at least 200 seats. As trends showed a landslide victory for Mamata Banerjee led TMC, the workers of the party have now reportedly gheraoed the BJP office in Hastings, Kolkata. After the predicted decisive victory for TMC, there have been fears that BJP workers and those who supported and voted for the party might face backlash from the TMC and its workers.

The euphoria of TMC workers was also visible in Asansol. After the Election Commission asked the officials and police to ensure that no congregations are allowed post-election results, the Bengal police was seen instructing TMC party workers to stop their celebrations and maintain protocol amidst rising COVID-19 cases. Instead of paying heed to what Bengal police were asking them to comply with, the TMC workers were seen bursting a fire cracker right next to the police officer to intimidate the officer.

Prashant Kishor announces he is quitting his career as political strategist, expresses desire to pursue an alternate career

OpIndia Staff
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Prashant Kishor announces he is quitting his career as political strategist, expresses desire to pursue an alternate career

As the nation awaits the state assembly elections results with piqued interest in West Bengal, TMC’s political and poll strategist Prashant Kishor has declared that he is quitting I-PAC, his political advocacy company and pursue another career.

In an interview to NDTV, Prashant Kishor announced his decision to hand it over to his colleagues. He said he wants to take some time out and look at an alternate career. He also said that he has not met his family in months.

This comes as a shocker as the trends seem to indicate Mamata Banerjee led Trinamool Congress will emerge victorious in West Bengal. Kishor had also challenged that he would leave Twitter and his current career if BJP crossed the double digital mark. With none happening, it is surprising that Kishor has taken the decision to quit his political advocacy career even before the counting ends.

In March, Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh had declared Prashant Kishor to be his political advisor for the state assembly elections to be held next year.

It is not clear if Kishor will continue with the post in his personal capacity or quit the political space altogether. 

As trends show TMC victorious, opposition leaders congratulate Mamata, Congress celebrates its own defeat

OpIndia Staff
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As trends show TMC victorious, opposition leaders congratulate Mamata, Congress celebrates its own defeat

As the counting of votes continues in West Bengal, the Election Commission data and trends indicate Mamata Banerjee led Trinamool Congress is coming back to power. Opposition parties are now congratulating Mamata Banerjee on the victory.

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal took to Twitter to congratulate Banerjee over her landslide victory. He said, “Congratulations @MamataOfficial didi for landslide victory. What a fight! Congratulations to the people of WB.”

Mamata Banerjee
Source: Twitter

NCP supremo Sharad Pawar also sent out a congratulatory tweet to Mamata Banerjee for her victory and said that the two parties should continue working for the welfare of the people.

Mamata Banerjee
Source: Twitter

Shiv Sena leader, Sanjay Raut, lauded the ‘Tigress of Bengal’ for her victory using the ‘Oh Didi’ phrase which otherwise the TMC finds offensive.

Mamata Banerjee
Source: Twitter

In a perplexing event, several Congress leaders can be seen celebrating their defeat on Twitter. 

Congress’s MLA from Chhattisgarh Shakuntala Sahu took a jibe on Prime Minister Narendra Modi despite Congress itself making no mark in the state elections.  

Mamata Banerjee
Source: Twitter

Calling Modi a roadside romeo, Congress Social Media Head from Karnataka Srivatsa in his Tweet said, “Everytime Modi said ‘Didi o Didi’ like a roadside romeo, BJP lost 5 seats in Bengal.”

Source: Twitter

Congress leader Acharya Pramod has been active on Twitter to not only attack the BJP for trailing in West Bengal but has also to make offensive comments on Hindu Gods in an attempt to take on the opposition. 

Source: Twitter

Congress’s South Delhi candidate Vijender Singh tweeted saying that people’s verdict is supreme. It is not clear whether the message was for the Indian National Congress or the Bhartiya Janta Party.

Source: Twitter

Victory celebration in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu

Meanwhile, TMC and DMK supporters have already hit the streets to celebrate the victory of the party in complete violation of Coronavirus protocols and social distancing guidelines as initial trends show them victorious.

In a shocking incident, TMC workers have also reportedly gheraod the BJP office in Hastings, Kolkata.

After the predicted decisive victory for TMC, there have been fears that BJP workers and those who supported and voted for the party might face backlash from the TMC and its workers. That the workers are now congregating in front of the BJP office has many worried about the consequences that might be faced by BJP workers post the predicted victory.

Demography is destiny indeed, but Assam shows the way: What Bengal BJP can learn from Assam

K Bhattacharjee
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Demography is destiny indeed, but Assam shows the way: What Bengal BJP can learn from Assam

The counting of votes in the Assembly Elections across five states are currently underway. The Left Front is set to retain power in Kerala, it’s a tight contest in Tamil Nadu but DMK appears to be heading towards a comfortable victory and the BJP alliance in Puducherry looks set to win Puducherry. But it is West Bengal and Assam that we will be focusing on here.

Assam and West Bengal are two states where minority vote-share impacts BJP’s chances of victory majorly. In Assam, the percentage of minority vote share is actually greater than in West Bengal. And yet, it is in Assam that BJP has managed to secure a comfortable victory while facing a rout in West Bengal.

According to the official website of the Election Commission of India (ECI), the Trinamool Congress is leading in 201 seats while the BJP only in 78 (as of 1.40 p.m.). The corresponding vote-shares are 48.55% for the TMC and 37.40% for the BJP.

The BJP might seek to take some consolation from the fact that it is set to see an exponential increase in its seat share these elections but there is really no way to spin this. The saffron vote-share has actually gone down from the 2019 General Elections, where the BJP managed to secure over 40% of the votes.

The answer is clear, the kind of Hindu consolidation that was observed in 2019 just did not occur in 2021 in favour of the BJP. A significant enough section of its Hindu votes went over to the TMC instead.

The questions that need to be answered is why did it happen and the underlying factors behind it. And for that, the BJP needs to look at what it did right in Assam. In Assam, the BJP’s strategy was consolidation of Hindu votes without a hyper focus on individual group identities in its narrative.

It was the polar opposite in West Bengal with the party focusing on the Matua community and the Mahisya community greatly. The result was that Hindu consolidation did not happen on the ground and the hyper focus on these identities did not pay off in the polls.

Mamata Banerjee appears to be sweeping Matua and Mahisya dominated constituencies as well. It is true that the concerns of individual identities need to be address to secure elections but in West Bengal, there was a hyper focus on such identities without an overarching Hindu centric narrative.

In Assam, leaders made no qualms about banking on Hindu consolidation to win elections. A great deal was focused on the fact that the anti-CAA sentiment in Upper Assam was going to cost BJP severely. But it did not.

Because the narrative was that differences between Assamese Hindus and Bengali Hindus could be sorted by political arrangement between the two, which was not possible with the growing Muslim community in the state.

The fact of the matter is that the BJP did not go hard enough on Hindu consolidation in Bengal. It is also unclear as of now the extent to which not implementing the CAA affected the election outcomes in the state.

There will be those sympathizers of the party who will blame the voters of Bengal for the results. But such conversations are futile. In a democracy, not a single vote is owed to any political party. Every political party must earn its vote.

A significant share of people (around 3-4%) who voted for the BJP in 2019 voted for Mamata Banerjee this time around. Why was it the case? That is for the parties to analyse the results and find out but it’s pointless to blame voters for the same.

In 2019, the vote in Bengal was polarised along religious lines and in 2021 it was not. As a consequence, BJP lost massively in 2021 and even had their strongholds breached. In Assam, both in 2019 and 2021, the vote was polarised along religious lines and hence, the party won.

Some will argue that it was the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 where Prime Minister Modi himself was on the ballot and this time around, it is the Assembly Elections. But the fact remains that many issues in these two states that were relevant in 2019 are relevant this time around as well.

The CAA, illegal immigration and the influence of minority vote-share were equally significant now as they were in 2019. Going forward, the path forward for the BJP is clear. Instead of a hyper focus on individual identities, the part must tread the path of unabashed Hindu vote consolidation.

There is also the case that the BJP did not have strong local leaders in West Bengal. But indeed, Dilip Ghosh and Suvendu Adhikari are extremely popular. And yet, the BJP has lost massively in these constituencies as well. The party surely has to spend significant time on a great deal of introspection on the setback, which it undoubtedly is.

As trends show TMC victory in Bengal, workers gherao BJP office in Kolkata, burst cracker in front of police in Asansol when asked to stop

OpIndia Staff
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As trends show TMC victory in Bengal, workers gherao BJP office in Kolkata, burst cracker in front of police in Asansol when asked to stop

As per initial trends, TMC is ahead in the state of West Bengal in at least 200 seats. As trends showed a landslide victory for Mamata Banerjee led TMC, the workers of the party have now reportedly gheraod the BJP office in Hastings, Kolkata.

After the predicted decisive victory for TMC, there have been fears that BJP workers and those who supported and voted for the party might face backlash from the TMC and its workers. That the workers are now congregating in front of the BJP office has many worried about the consequences that might be faced by BJP workers post the predicted victory.

The euphoria of TMC workers was also visible in Asansol. After the Election Commission asked the officials and police to ensure that no congregations are allowed post election results, the Bengal police was seen instructing TMC party workers to stop their celebrations and maintain protocol amidst rising COVID-19 cases.

Instead of paying heed to what Bengal police was asking them to comply with, the TMC workers were seen bursting a fire cracker right next to the police officer to intimidate the officer.

The development comes amidst growing Coronavirus cases in the State. As of May 2, West Bengal has reported 11,66,59 active cases and a total of 11,447 fatalities.

As initial trends show TMC winning West Bengal, party workers celebrate and violate COVID-19 protocol: Watch

OpIndia Staff
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As initial trends show TMC winning West Bengal, party workers celebrate and violate COVID-19 protocol: Watch

On Sunday (April 2), Trinamool Congress (TMC) workers hit the streets to celebrate the victory of the party in complete violation of Coronavirus protocols and social distancing guidelines.

As per reports, the jubilant celebration on the street by TMC workers began as initial election result trends suggested the victory of the incumbent government in West Bengal. At one point, when the TMC tally crossed 200, party workers gathered in the streets in Kalighat in Kolkata. In visuals shared by ANI, they were seen dancing to the tune of loud music, playing ‘Holi’, waving party flags, and breaching Coronavirus protocols.

Visuals shared by India Today journalist Rahul Kanwal also showed a grim picture of the social distancing violation in the State. TMC workers were seen flouting SOPs right outside the residence of party supremo Mamata Banerjee. Interestingly, the cops deployed at the site were seen managing the traffic flow instead of stopping the TMC supporters from celebrating. This is despite the fact that a complete lockdown has been enforced in the State capital of Kolkata. The party workers were spotted without masks and standing in close vicinity of each other.

On being reminded by an India Today reporter that the Election Commission (EC) has barred the political party from mass gatherings and celebrations, a TMC worker justified, “We are not celebrating. Others requested me to put on some colours and I did. A little bit of celebration here and there cannot be stopped. If the public wants to celebrate, what can I do about it?” The TMC workers were also seen blocking the roads and disrupting traffic flow.

The development comes amidst growing Coronavirus cases in the State. As of May 2, West Bengal has reported 11,66,59 active cases and a total of 11,447 fatalities.

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