The counting of votes in the Jharkhand Assembly Elections is on the verge of completion. Most significantly, it appears certain now that the BJP will not be the single largest party in the state. As of writing this report, the BJP was leading in 16 and had won in 9, taking its tally to 25 as per the latest trends.
The JMM had won in 8 and was leading in another 22. One of the few pollsters to have predicted this outcome precisely, or perhaps the only one, is the Jan Ki Baat.
The Jan Ki Baat exit polls had predicted the BJP to score between 22 and 30 seats while it gave the alliance anything between 37 and 46. Individually, JMM was touted to score between 28 and 23 seats while the Congress was expected to secure between 15 and 10 seats.
The JKB poll appears to have predicted the BJP’s and Congress’ seats perfectly as the latter is at 15 as per the latest trends. JMM is currently at two more than the maximum seats JKB gave them.
In terms of vote share, the JKB accurately predicted BJP’s vote share. The poll gave BJP a vote share of 33% and the BJP, as per the latest trends, is at 33.66%. However, it appears to have slightly overestimated the vote share of the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance. While the JKB poll predicted the alliance to secure a 40% vote share, the alliance is at 35.5%.
However, the JKB poll was perhaps the only poll that got the bigger picture correct. It might have missed the mark here and there but it did get the bigger picture absolutely correct. CEO of JKB, Pradip Bhandari, was also one of the few to accurately predict that there was a very serious chance of the incumbent Chief Minister Raghubar Das losing his own seat, which he has lost.
Speaking to OpIndia, Pradip Bhandari blamed BJP’s defeat on the arrogance of the local leaders. He said, “Modi can give you a 5-year stable government but eventually you’ll have to work. Raghubar Das’ arrogance made him lose. Most states which had won after 2014 are losing in 2019 because of anti-incumbency.”